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The song remains the same on the grade separation at Broadway only a lot more off-key than before.  I wrote this five years ago here:

One of the common questions I hear in town is "When are they going to fix the rest of Broadway?" meaning now that the bridge has been replaced, what about the rail crossing?  My standard response is "There isn't nearly enough money socked away to even start".

That refrain got even worse this week as the DJ reports:

The grade separation — designated as a top priority at last year’s city goal-setting — would separate the train tracks from the road to mitigate traffic, increase public safety and allow more than one train at the Broadway station. At the beginning of 2024, project costs were estimated at $325 million.

Now, however, Caltrain recently informed the city about significant increases to project costs, raising totals to $500 to $600 million for construction alone, Public Works Director Syed Murtuza said.

Aside from the usual, completely predictable, extreme increases in the cost of labor and materials, now we get to add the fact that with electrification of Caltrain we have to de-electrify the lines to do the construction for four hours at night.  Less construction time equals more project time equals higher costs.  Rinse and repeat.

Pleas from the city to complete the grade separation before Caltrain electrification went unanswered, Murtuza said. “It’s just utterly poor management and mismanagement on the part of the organization, and we saw it directly,” (Donna Colson) said.  She urged the city to realistically communicate with residents about the realities of the long-awaited project moving forward.

"Realistic" is our middle name here at the Voice.  No shovels will be hitting dirt in the foreseeable future, so we need to make lemonade.  Is it AI like noted here?  Is it just an underpass?  Do we try to get a reprieve from the state on our RHNA numbers so we can stop building giant residential cell blocks on Rollins that will change the traffic grade on the intersection from an "F" to an "F–"?   Just kidding, not "realistic", but a nice fantasy.  There are timing tweaks to the various signals that could make marginal improvements.  All we can really do is better traffic enforcement and hope the accident and fatality rates don't climb.

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11 responses to “Broadway: New cost estimate, same old story”

  1. Joe

    Holly Rusch at the DJ has assembled all of the numbers and history regarding the B’way rail crossing. Bottom Line? Just as I have written above.
     
    Though it had been slow going at times — “why does it take from 2017 to almost 24 … to implement the design that the whole city agreed upon?” Colson said: $17 million had been committed from Burlingame, $24 million secured in county transportation sales tax money, $133 million in potential county sales tax funding and $85 million in hard-fought state funding had been promised for the future.
    ———–
    Regarding Caltrain adding AI, new gates and signage
    ——————-
    While Burlingame is grateful for such additions, it doesn’t change the need for a grade separation, Goldman said.
    “You have to get the cars and the trucks and the bikes and the people … off the path of where the train is traveling,” she said. “You can’t paint your way out of it or signalize your way out of it. That certainly helps. It’ll help a lot. But the most important thing is to separate the roadway from the railway.”
    https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/1965-to-now-decades-add-huge-cost-to-rail-project-in-burlingame/article_625ffe42-e5d0-11ef-9e42-67dc1fb6912a?utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1739199633&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

  2. Peter Garrison

    Build the parts off site in Brisbane. Heavy lift helicopters and fit them together like a jigsaw puzzle.
    Ask, “What would China or Elon do?” And get it done.

  3. Joe

    The DJ basically repeated the article from last month, but with a very pointed quote from our mayor to spice things up a bit!:
    The increase is due to a variety of factors, a large one being Caltrain’s inaccurate 2022 estimate, which was derived primarily from design, not construction, consultants. The cost has also increased due to the need to work around live electrified infrastructure, which was fully implemented in September 2024.
    “That’s a $300 million scholarship to educate Caltrain on modern construction theory and planning,” Burlingame Mayor Peter Stevenson said. “They didn’t have the expertise to do this … we told them to do this project before electrification because electrification adds time and cost, so the reality is, we don’t have confidence in that relationship structure.”

  4. Joe

    That is quite an indictment of project planning and execution! From the site:
    Recent studies have found that, on average, nationwide construction projects exceed their budget by 16% at minimum—and often far more. Many lenders recommend including a 20% contingency right off the bat for cost overrun. Imagine a 20% salary increase, and you’ll have a good idea of what a significant expansion this is! And remember, this is an average across all projects, not a one-time overrun.
    ———————
    High-speed rail will set a new, all time high benchmark—-it could end up somewhere like 2,0000% over.

  5. Joe

    B’game is going back to the drawing board with a new $3.8M Sharpie. From the DJ:
    City staff worked with the project’s partners, including Caltrain and the San Mateo County Transportation Authority, to get pricing for the redesign from $19.9 million to $15.3 million, $3.8 million of which will come from the city. The reduction reflects a $1 million decrease in the design fee and a $700,000 reduction in Caltrain’s costs.
    —-this paragraph doesn’t make mathematical sense, but it doesn’t matter right now—
    There’s currently a $586 million funding gap on the project. If all the funding the city is lobbying for comes through — including $15 million from Burlingame, $280 million from the San Mateo County Transportation Authority, $110 million in state funding, as well as federal funding — that still leaves a gap of around $147 million.
    In regards to the redesign, the city is putting barriers in place to ensure they aren’t financially blindsided again, Public Works Director Syed Murtuza said, including searching for an outside resource to peer-review Caltrain’s design estimations. Brownrigg seconded a desire to see new protocol for the design effort.

  6. Joe

    This was a bit of a head scratcher last week given the ever-increasing price tag on the project. From the DJ:
    Caltrain is acquiring two properties along the rail corridor in Burlingame, marking another step toward fixing what’s considered the most dangerous rail crossing in the state.
    The San Mateo County Transportation Authority has held on to the parcels since the 1990s, one houses a Chevron gas station and car wash and the other is vacant, and approved the sale to the rail agency July 10.
    Caltrain will assume ownership, though the funds for the sale, about $635,000, are coming from TA-administered funds from Measure A funds, the half-cent countywide sales tax.
    The acquisition allows Caltrain to complete necessary work on the long-anticipated Broadway grade separation project, which would create a detachment between the road and the train tracks, lowering the risk of vehicle collisions as they cross the tracks. (Ed: Not quite!!)
    The crossing is frequently cited as the most dangerous rail crossing in the state, given at least 13 vehicle collisions that have occurred on or near the intersection since 2016 — which included two fatalities.
    But recent estimates to build the grade separation more than doubled from 2022 figures, going from $316 million to $889 million just three years later. The agency was able to ultimately reduce the price tag closer to $600 million, however, it requires closing the Broadway station entirely, which was not part of the original plan.

  7. Joe

    The day after the Broadway Caltrain gate was broken for four hours in the middle of the day, this story appears in the DJ along with a photo of local pols holding a big $3M presentation check:

    Plans for a grade separation at the Broadway intersection in Burlingame, which previously were put in jeopardy due to a cost estimate of $615 million for the most pared-down version of the plan, are receiving a second wind with additional investment from the San Mateo County Transportation Authority and the possibility of federal funding.

    Caltrain was able to get the most basic construction costs for the grade separation down to $380 million by removing the Broadway train station and the need for temporary shoofly tracks when construction commences, Jess Manzi, San Mateo County Transportation Authority project delivery director, said.

    The TA is planning an investment of $21.6 million to get the project, which is currently approaching 65% design, to 100% design by 2029. Pending approval of federal grant money, the TA is also planning for programming $321.6 million into right-of-way and construction costs.

    The agency is hopeful that the funding investment will make the project more attractive for a federal railroad crossing elimination program grant, for which it’s currently applying. That ask sits at just above $90 million, Manzi said.
    ———————————–
    With all that said, the final comment was “there would not be any gap”. We shall see. In the meantime, removing the B’way train station and Maverick Jack’s won’t be the most popular decision in town. But lately one has to ask if any decision maker cares?

  8. Joe

    And then there is this, also from the DJ:

    After adopting a $270 million operating budget, Caltrain is reiterating short- and long-term plans to narrow its deficit with a state loan and upcoming sales tax ballot measure — or else it could shut down entirely, leaders say.

    Without a substantial injection of funding — which it hopes to secure via the Connect Bay Area sales tax measure in November — Caltrain says it could close more than one-third of its stations, eliminate weekend service, reduce train frequency and ultimately shut down passenger service altogether.

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