Category: High Speed Rail

  • High-cost rail – Part 168 Billions more

    The steady drumbeat of bad news just keeps getting worse. This week a new, worst-case number KTLA is reporting a possible hit of $231 billion! They report

    In a newly proposed business plan released this year, project leaders estimate the Los Angeles-to-San Francisco segment will cost about $126 billion, with service beginning around 2040. In the meantime, the state is focused on getting the Bakersfield-to-Merced section up and running earlier, with a target of no later than 2033. All of this falls under what officials are calling an “optimized plan,” which reduces the scope of the original proposal. Under the updated plan, some segments would share tracks with existing systems such as Metrolink, and the number of tunnels would be scaled back, at least for now. Project leaders say those changes could significantly reduce costs. Without them, officials estimate the full Los Angeles-to-San Francisco buildout could have cost as much as $231 billion.

    You would not be wrong to ask why, at this stage of the game, they are still tweaking the design? It’s the shockingly bad management we have some to expect along with the waste noted in Part 167. The latest circus act was reported in the Comicle this week involving Cesar Chavez of all people and his 187-acre monument. The headline read “Add a $1 billion detour for California high-speed rail to Cesar Chavez’s legacy”:

    Add one more twist to the complicated legacy of disgraced civil rights icon Cesar Chavez: A reroute around his grave site has inflated the cost of California’s high-speed rail project by nearly $1 billion. Ironically, Chavez’s monument already sits on a key rail corridor that carries about 36 freight trains each day through the rugged Tehachapi. A single track loops around the property, creating a constant rumble for anyone walking among the Mission-style buildings and courtyards where Chavez lived and organized grape-field workers. Through letters and stakeholder meetings, the Chavez Center and the Cesar Chavez Foundation successfully lobbied for a bespoke alignment called the “refined Cesar Chavez National Monument design option,” which moved the track about three-quarters of a mile away from the monument boundary.  Board directors for the High-Speed Rail Authority adopted the alternative design in 2021, as part of a final environmental impact report for the 80-mile Bakersfield to Palmdale (Los Angeles County) section. Now, some rail authority staff or board members might call for a do-over.

    Here’s the mindset on the Authority Board:

    “We are constantly reviewing decisions that we’ve made along that alignment,” said board director Henry Perea, pointing to other potential revisions, such as the relocation of a future train stop in Merced. Plans that are really lines and dots on draft paper are always subject to change, Perea noted, particularly if policymakers are seeking to save money, or trying to acknowledge a historical wrong.

    Will any gubernatorial candidate with a D after their name have the guts to say we should just cut bait on this monstrosity? We only have a month to go until the primary.

  • High-cost Rail — Part 167 An insider view of the waste

    Just when you think you know a lot about how poorly designed and managed the high-cost rail project is from 166 prior posts, someone with insider knowledge steps up to add to the long tale of woe. I’ve plucked this directly from an X post and it rings so loudly of truth that I will just paste it all here:

    Since my account is somewhat anonymous, I’m going to disclose where some of the California high-speed rail money gets wasted. 99% of you don’t realize where giant chunks of the money are disappearing to. 

    The California high-speed rail authority literally owns thousands of parcels of land that are in various stages continued litigation, tenant improvements, eviction, and constant maintenance.  For example, there are many homes and apartment complexes in the planned path that have been purchased years ahead of construction. Removing those tenants is a slow and expensive process. (let’s ignore the extra stress on housing that all of these destroyed properties are causing). In some cases, these are low rent apartments with a lengthy eviction process.  

    During that process, the State of California is the landlord and has to maintain the property to code the same as any other landlord.  This means repairs, adding smoke detectors, fixing roofs, vegetation management, landscaping, paying off tenants to leave early, boarding up windows, constant trash cleanups, towing vehicles etc. 

    But the High Speed Rail Authority doesn’t just have to maintain these properties at normal cost.  Every single bit of that work has to be done at California prevailing wage rates.  The work can only be done through qualified contractors that have passed through a long series of idiotic mazes to qualify to perform the work. 

    An average rate per hour (charge rate) for a worker to perform any service on these properties is approximately $200 an hour for labor only.  The cost go up for specialized work, like electricians, plumbers, or machine operators.  

    Properties that are literally worthless are being maintained at huge expense just so the next round of homeless transients can break into the property and cause more damage.  For reasons I can’t explain, the process to finally demo and remove the structures takes years.  I’m only mentioning the tip of the iceberg regarding my firsthand knowledge. 

    Completely separate from those outlandish costs are the inflation caused by the construction.  The prevailing word on the street is that nothing is getting done. The truth is that a lot is getting done and none of it efficiently.

    The amount of concrete being poured daily and monthly to build gigantic overpasses for both the rail and roadways is not understood.  In these work areas, every concrete mixing company is fully scheduled out and cannot offer building materials for other basic services, such as building a house, often times for weeks when the average lead time for many of these services used to be one day.   And that’s just the schedule, never mind the huge cost increases from straining the supply chain and labor pool.  The amount of concrete and steel that has gone into the structures so far is massive. Dozens and dozens of new water wells have been dug just for dust control.

    Thousands upon thousands of acres of highly productive tree fruits and nuts have been torn up and shredded.  Utility scale solar fields have been uprooted and sometimes relocated at extravagant costs. 

    Every type of business you can imagine has gone through either a closure, relocation, or a long-term tenant agreement with the Rail Authority.  In some cases, it’s just a buyout where the business closes its doors forever. The owners get something; all of the workers get nothing. 

    Don’t get me started on how thick the layers of bureaucracy are for these minute tasks that occur on all of these properties.  The inefficiency is far beyond your wildest dreams.  In many cases, this is not related to fraud in any way it’s just absolute ignorance, red tape, and failed leadership.  

    I can go much deeper into specific examples, but I think that gives some of you an idea of what’s actually happening in California.  If the rail is ever usable, some portions of the structures will be decades old and already in disrepair.

    That’s the conclusion of the anonymous post on X. You would not be wrong to ask why no mainstream media has reported on these financial sink holes. Or why no elected politician or wannabe governor from the dominant party in the state talks about any of this.

  • The Many Flavors of California Fraud

    You have to take notes to keep track of all the flavors of fraud being uncovered in California. Not that you would read about even half of it in the SF Comicle or other establishment press. The drumbeat is loud elsewhere, and today’s drum majorettes are highlighting the “wildlife butterfly bridge” in LA to help mountain lions cross 101 in Agoura Hills. Scoped at $50 million in 2022, it’s now at $114M and counting since it’s not finished. Considering its short span (210 feet), it might rival high-cost rail or the state capitol annex on a percentage basis.

    It turns out the $31 billion with a “b” EDD fraud is just the tip of the fraud iceberg. There’s the homeless-industrial complex fraud, the drug treatment center fraud, Medicaid fraud, autism fraud, hospice fraud, Proposition signature gathering fraud, the community college financial aid fraud, the commercial driver’s license fraud, the non-profit fraud and the cap-and-trade sleight of hand.

    I’m sure there are more flavors, so we will just use this post as the “fraud bucket” to be continually filled. When you hear we need this bond measure or that tax rate increase or that new fee, remember how leaky the bucket is.

  • High-Cost Rail- Part 166: Another half billion gone

    The drumbeat of bad news on the high-cost rail fiasco just keeps getting louder to the point where the Legislature may shift into opaque mode going forward. From ABC 10 yesterday:

    SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California’s High-Speed Rail Board of Directors approved a settlement costing more than half a billion dollars, a move that comes as lawmakers debate how transparent the long-delayed and over-budget project should be.

    During a January meeting, the High-Speed Rail Authority’s board of directors approved more than $500 million to settle a dispute with a company contracted to design portions of the project. The settlement was approved as a change order, meaning it involved changes within an original contract, and the amount was decided during a closed session meeting.

    “Negotiate and finalize an appropriate settlement change order with DFJB up to an amount of $537.3 million,” said Adam Brezine, chief counsel for the High Speed Rail Authority.

    I can’t help but think that number is probably right around what we are short to do the Broadway grade separation. Hundreds of millions flying out the door due to incompetence. And the going forward solution?

    Citing those delays and concerns, (Assemblywoman Lori) Wilson introduced Assembly Bill 1608, which would provide additional tools for the Office of the Inspector General to conduct audits of the high-speed rail project.

    However, the bill includes language that would prohibit the inspector general from making a report public if it determines the report would, in part, “reveal weaknesses that could be exploited by individuals.”

    Wilson says she is open to amendments or clarifications, and that “weaknesses” is a standard audit term. Audits exist to find weaknesses and there are plenty to choose from on high-cost rail. Let’s air the dirty laundry so we can stop bleeding. That’s a change order I can live with.

  • High-Cost Rail – Part 165 Bonta retreats

    The news that AG Rob Bonta has dropped the lawsuit against the Feds to “recoup” $4 billion in high-cost rail subsidies had all the markings of a holiday news drop. I saw it flicker by on X a couple of days ago from Rep. Kevin Kiley, but otherwise it was very quiet. But wait! The SF Comicle actually ran a piece about the retreat that provides us with a good holiday belly laugh:

    “This action reflects the State’s assessment that the federal government is not a reliable, constructive, or trustworthy partner in advancing high-speed rail in California,” a spokesperson for the rail authority wrote in a statement. “As a result, the State has opted to move forward without the Trump administration. We regret that they will not share in California’s success.”

    Looking back at the previous 164 posts I don’t see any successes. Quite the opposite. Money is being flushed down the drain with no end in sight. And they think they will con private investors to join in as noted in Part 164.

    “Federal dollars remain a fraction of our high-speed rail investment and the action will not diminish the project, which is primarily state-funded,” said state Sen. Dave Cortese, D-San Jose, who chairs the Senate Transportation Committee and a major advocate for the rail line. “We have not anticipated receiving that money now for the better part of the year so in a sense it’s been written off.”

    Even before the federal funding came under threat, the rail authority CEO Ian Choudri, who was appointed in August 2024, had begun to focus on luring private investors to complete the project more quickly.

    One has to wonder when Gov. Newsom will finally do his patented flip-flop, kill the thing and preserve his presidential aspirations from being railroaded into the ground? I can’t imagine Bonta pulled the plug on the lawsuit all by himself. The $1 billion per year from Cap and Trade just prolongs the bleeding.

  • High-Cost Rail – Part 164 Private financing? Don’t bet on it

    It was fun reading SF Comicle journalist Rachel Swan try to put a happy face on the latest PR from the High-Speed Rail Authority.  As the Feds meander towards cancelling the latest $4 billion check, the latest CEO thinks private money may participate!  From the Chron

    At a moment when California high-speed rail faces possible abandonment, the project’s new CEO sees a tantalizing lifeline: $1 billion annually from the state, supplemented by an infusion of private capital.  It’s a hopeful, perhaps heady proposition.

    More like a head shop proposition, but she's trying

    But when CEO Ian Choudri was appointed last August to run the High-Speed Rail Authority, an agency created to plan and oversee the train system, he refused to let rising costs or critics distract him. Instead, he latched onto the public-private financing gambit, convinced that it just might work.

    Here's another guy looking to eat at the trough

    “There are significant ways to monetize (and) commercialize long linear rights of way,” said Sia Kusha, senior vice president of Plenary Americas, a firm that specializes in public-private partnerships. Plenary has helped build metro rail systems, hospitals, freeway express lanes and a vast expansion of the UC Merced campus.

    Although Kusha did not provide specific details about how to commercialize high-speed rail, others cited the fare box as a basic source of revenue. Beyond that, companies could develop real estate around stations or operate tunnels and charge for every train that rolls through. For businesses willing to engage in a little magical thinking, the opportunities seem boundless.

    "A little magical thinking"?  Is that like being a little pregnant?  You can tell Rachel had a deadline, went to the conference where this nonsense was discussed and had nothing else to write about.  The sooner Newsom kills this boondoggle and redirects the $1 billion per year of Cap and Trade money to things like, say, the Broadway grade separation, Caltrain and SamTrans budgets, or even propping up BART, the better.  Nobody has said this, but there's a non-zero chance that the El Camino Real "Little Big Dig" might be seeing cost increases that threaten the project the same as the grade separation.  Even that would be a better use of money than the Train from Nowhere to Nowhere.

  • Bay Area “Labor market malaise” to continue?

    It's best to take the long view when watching the economic dynamics of the Bay Area.  Point in time measures can't tell the whole story but do provide some sense of the state of things.  $12 billion dollar state budget deficit?  Check.  Transit "fiscal cliff" that sends politicians running for more taxes?  Check.  Massive Bay Area employers backing off of paying for huge residential housing projects?  Check.  Employment down? Check as the Merc is reporting today:

    The Bay Area lost 14,700 total nonfarm payroll jobs in all categories over the first four months of 2025. Over the same time, California lost 32,300 total payroll jobs, official reports from the state Employment Development Department show.

    “There is little doubt that federal government job losses will be an important contributor to the labor market malaise that already appears to be falling over the Bay Area,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.  In sharp contrast, state and local government agencies have increased hiring, but that may soon change.

    Let's hope so.  The Merc doesn't provide the denominator to the fraction, i.e. how many nonfarm jobs are there?  But a $12 billion deficit is not a chump-change.

    Job losses within the federal government could become far worse in the months ahead, some experts warn.  “These numbers are the tip of the iceberg,” Levy said. “The majority of federal job cuts are not reflected in the April data.”

    A $2.4 trillion-dollar federal deficit ain't chump-change either so I take issue with the characterization of federal RIFs becoming "far worse".  Right sizing government and bringing some sanity to the Bay Area jobs-housing ratio that might stop the "Wienerization" of the suburbs is to be encouraged.  Want to stop the $inkhole sucking taxpayer cash that is the high-cost rail project?  It's only claim to fame so far is that it "creates" a lot of new jobs.  I'm sure we could put a few to work on the Broadway grade separation for a tiny fraction of what is being wasted in the Central Valley.  Don't hold your breath.

  • Podcast: Mark Lucchesi and I talk B’game (#103)

    I'm honored that B'game podcaster Mark "Mark at the Mic" Lucchesi asked me back for another episode of Burlingame – It's a Small Town.  Over the course of about an hour we covered numerous topics that will be familiar to regular Voice readers and some new stuff too.  If you want to invest the time, around cocktail hour is recommended, then settle in with your favorite beverage and listen to the "Voice of the Voice".  The link to Episode #103 is here.

    Thanks again, Mark.  He has me queued up for another one in a few months since there is always something to talk about in our Small TownTM.

    Here is the two of us after recording the third podcast at the library

    Mark and Joe

  • High Cost Rail – Part 163 The DOGE commeth

    There are multiple news reports that relay and expand on Vivek Ramaswamy's tweet about our very own high-cost rail boondoggle.  As co-head of the DOGE, he's got some pull to make things happen–or in this case, hopefully to make things not happen.  Regular Voice readers who are familiar with the first 162 posts on our boondoggle, know the ugly truth.  The project is mired in an expensive quagmire.  It's original questionable value just keeps sinking.  Here is a three-and-a-half-year-old reminder.  The DOGE tweet notes

    Late last month Ramaswamy pointed out on X that “This is a wasteful vanity project, burning billions in taxpayer cash, with little prospect for completion in the next decade. President Trump correctly rescinded ~$1BN in federal funds for this boondoggle in 2019, but Biden reversed that & doubled down. Time to end the waste.”

    The California Globe digs a bit deeper on the numbers

    This led to Thursday when proposed DOGE co-Commissioners Ramaswamy and Elon Musk were in Washington talking to GOP leadership about the proposed DOGE. Potential targets were discussed, with California High Speed rail being one of them, along with Medicare, Social Security and electric vehicle subsidies.

    While California lawmakers have yet to publicly respond to a possible cut of all federal funds for the high speed rail project as of Friday afternoon, critics of the high speed rail plan have said that federal cuts of that magnitude would put the project in a real bind, perhaps even delaying opening of it further into the 2030s.

    “If DOGE does become reality and they deliver on their promise on getting rid of all federal funding for the project, then the state will have to deal with that shortfall,” transportation industry accountant Derrick Clark told the Globe Friday. “Right now, the project is trying to get $4.7 billion in federal grants to stay at their current spending levels. Biden is likely to get them $200 million of that before leaving office, leaving it up to Trump to approve the other $4.5 billion in grants. And that he is likely not going to do, especially if DOGE highlights that.

    High-cost rail is such low-hanging fruit for a early DOGE win that I cannot see any way that another $4.5B gets released.  The next question is how does Newsom react?  He's termed out in 2026, so reputational protection is pretty much his 24-hour raison d'etre at this point.  One lame duck should kill the other.

  • High-Cost Rail – Part 162 A boring discussion

    The insane HSR money pit dig just continues on in the face of fiscal cliffs for local rail, potholes all over the state, unfunded grade separations and more taxes and bonds on the horizon.  This week the last section into LA got its environmental rubber stamp (the last one was two years ago) as noted in the Comicle:

    California's bullet train project reached a major milestone: The entire 463-mile route from San Francisco to Los Angeles is now environmentally cleared for construction.  The High-Speed Rail Authority’s board signed off Thursday on a preferred route and environmental clearance for the 38-mile segment that would carry bullet trains from Palmdale to Burbank. It was the project’s last segment between San Francisco and Los Angeles that had yet to be cleared.

    If you thought this has any effect on the overall fiscal disaster, there are a number of bridges for sale.  The Comicle reporter, Ricardo Cano, blithely repeats all of the PR missives from the Authority.  Here are a couple of the 

    Bullet train service on the Central Valley segment — 171 miles from Bakersfield to Merced — is expected to start between 2030 and 2033, featuring four huge stations.  The project is $7 billion short of completing the Central Valley segment and needs $100 billion to finish the route from San Francisco to Los Angeles.

    That will make for a lot of driving up and down I-5 to get to the four huge stations, but no worries–they won't be very busy.  And then

    Connecting Merced to San Jose will require tunneling 15 miles of tracks through Pacheco Pass in the Diablo Range. The Palmdale-to-Burbank segment will necessitate boring 30 miles of tunnels that will run along State Route 14 and underneath the community of Acton, Angeles National Forest and the San Gabriel Mountains National Monument.

    The authority’s Board of Directors spent much of Thursday’s vote debating whether the mountainous segment and its tunnels would be able to withstand a major earthquake. Authority officials said they planned to present more details on the segment’s tunneling work early next year.

    "We are fully engaged in planning to make a plan, but don't worry.  In our universe time isn't money and even if it was, we have plenty of it–we just don't know where it is at the moment."  BART is a certifiable mess.  Meanwhile Caltrain, with a mere 49 miles, is insolvent and in need of millions for grade separations, bridge repairs and whatever else we aren't being told about until it's an emergency that requires more taxes for "equity".

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