Category: Climate

  • Connecting the drops — or not

    Should we be angry that our dear leaders appear to think we are stupid? I suppose so. How else to process these two things simultaneously? The Merc reports

    A broad new water conservation law will soon take effect in phases, banning the watering of “ornamental turf” at corporate, industrial, government and homeowners’ association properties with drinking water across California as a way to preserve supplies.

    Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the new state law in 2023 as California was emerging from a harsh three-year drought. Starting on Jan. 1, it will be illegal for local and regional government agencies across the state — including schools, cities, counties, courthouses, fire stations and libraries — to irrigate decorative grass with potable water whether or not California is in a drought. On Jan. 1, 2028, the ban will expand to commercial businesses like office parks, car dealerships, supermarkets, strip malls and corporate campuses, along with colleges and universities. And on Jan. 1, 2029, it will apply to homeowners’ associations.

    But let this bit of news from the Comicle sink into your cognitive dissonance–rattled brain

    For the past 21 years, he and many other Brisbane residents have opposed efforts to transform the roughly 680-acre former industrial site straddling the San Francisco border into a mixed-use development with thousands of homes. In July, after Brisbane repeatedly missed deadlines to approve a plan for up to 2,200 homes on the Baylands site that would cover 81% of its state-mandated housing allocation, California ruled the city out of compliance with state housing laws.

    The plan evolved over the years as environmental studies and cleanup proposals developed, and demand for housing grew. By 2010, the proposal called for about 4,400 homes, mostly concentrated in the northwest corner of the Baylands site, away from the old landfill. The developer had also been working on a project adjacent to the site that includes the former Schlage Lock factory, where San Francisco leaders had already approved 1,674 housing units.

    I won’t reach for my calculator, but one doesn’t need it to know that is a lot of housing–and that’s just Brisbane and the southern reaches of EssEff. So much for being green as in green grass. What exactly happens to all these square miles of grass that get parched and die because there is hardly any non-potable water around? And what about the trees that are interspersed on this “ornamental turf”. Do all the property owners need to run separate irrigation lines to them to keep them alive? They think we are all stupid. And perhaps a majority of us are.

  • Gas Prices: A counterintuitive finding

    The travel intensive bookends to the summer — Memorial Day and Labor Day — find the press focussing on gas prices; and rightly so. We see the big numbers on every gas station sign and the pump reminds us constantly. My folks searched for the cheapest gas back in the ’60s and especially the ’70s during the OPEC oil crisis. And it feels like we are paying a lot these days, but I recently saw a data-driven view that bursts that bubble. From Gemini:

    The inflation-adjusted national average price of gasoline since the 1973 OPEC oil crisis fluctuates between $3.00 and $4.00 per gallon, indicating that when evaluated against the long-term purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, real fuel costs have remained remarkably stable. Despite sharp increases in the absolute numerical price at the pump over the last 50+ years, historical data tracking adjusted for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that regular gasoline rarely strays from a long-run historical average of approximately $3.61 per gallon.

    Direct Comparison: Selected Historical vs. Modern Gas Prices

    Era / YearNominal Pump Price (Per Gallon)Inflation-Adjusted Price (In Modern USD)Economic Context
    Early 1973 (Pre-Crisis)$0.39$2.85Stable domestic production
    1974 (Post-Embargo)$0.53$3.60Initial OPEC shock wave
    1981 (Historic High)$1.38$5.18Iranian Revolution energy gap
    1998 (Historic Low)$1.06$1.98Asian Financial Crisis crude glut
    2008 (Commodity Peak)$3.27$4.77China economic boom & speculation
    2020 (Pandemic Low)$2.07$2.61Global COVID-19 lockowns
    Current (Sept 2026)$4.21$4.21Middle East conflict fluctuations

    Nationally, we are at the upper end of the long-run normal range, but tack on the California gas tax premium (just raised again by 2.2 cents on July 1st) and the costs of our oh-so-special blend plus refineries closing and the pain increases. But it’s still not enough to make me buy tires with inferior traction, lesser water/snow shedding and longer stopping times. Sorry, Gavin. Not gonna do it to.

  • Gas Water Heaters: Common sense missing

    We are officially in the last half of the year, and the burning question is are we also in the last six months for gas water heaters? It was more than six years ago when I first analyzed here what a stupid, expensive, complicated mandate this would be when B’game looked at it. I elaborated on more nitty-gritty problems in May here. More issues come to mind as I look at my water heater especially how much time and money it will take to patch the ceiling and roof where the deleted vent exits. Do the retired gas pipes under my house just lay there for eternity like a desiccated rodent’s skeleton? This ban is a plumber, electrician, roofer, and painter’s dream. More people are waking up to the impending implosion, and the San Mateo County Supes will be looking at it during their August 11th meeting. Will common sense make an appearance? The supes should memorize this letter to the Comicle.

    The Bay Area Air District’s plan to prohibit gas water heaters and furnaces needs to be scrapped.  Everyone is in favor of cleaner air, but how we get there needs thoughtfulness. Arguing that incentives for property owners and future higher costs for gas will ease the pain of conversion isn’t going to cut it.

    Converting from gas to electricity is not a simple process. One can’t just unplug the old unit and plug in the new. Designing the new systems, obtaining the appropriate permits, and coordinating with PG&E, if an upgraded electrical panel is needed, will take time.  Modifying the building to accept the new water heater and furnace takes money, budgeting and careful planning, especially if people are living in the building.

    Hardly anyone replaces a water heater or furnace before it breaks. When one does need to be replaced, the situation is tantamount to an emergency because the home becomes uninhabitable without hot water or heat. Mandating the replacement of the gas units with electric add to the cost and complexity. This flat-out ban on gas water heaters and furnaces will bring nightmares to many.

    Frank Lee, San Francisco

    Lost in all of this is just how much time a homeowner will need to spend to comply. I value my time pretty highly, but I don’t get a sense that our elected officials do.

  • Electric reality sets in? Not yet

    We had another big power outage Monday in B’game. At the start, the PG&E app said about 5,000 “users”, meaning service addresses, were out including long-suffering Broadway. Figure as many as 8-10,000 people lost power for some period of time. The area around City Hall was still out more than an hour after it was first reported. At this point it appears such outages don’t even merit a mention in the news–except here at the Voice.

    Therefore, now is the perfect time to recap the long SF Comicle article from Sunday titled “What to know about water heater changes“. Writer Brooke Park might be out of a job–or in line for a Pulitzer–because her piece actually got it right on about 80% of the problems with the impending gas water heater ban. It’s almost a full page long and hits on:

    Adding both a heat pump water heater and a heat pump furnace system could push more homeowners toward costly electrical panel upgrades. Older homes often have 100-amp panels, while newer or upgraded homes may have 200-amp panels or higher. Homes with multiple new electric appliances — such as two heat pumps and an electric vehicle charger — may be more likely to need electrical upgrades, especially if they have lower-capacity panels.

    While Park captured the basics, the time and delay to find an electrician, get them scheduled and get the work done along with the permitting isn’t captured in the estimate. Nor is any sort of removal costs for the “obsolete” gas plumbing, vents, roof repair, etc, etc.

    The Bay Are Air District said that an average natural gas water heater installation would be around $3,500 while a heat pump installation would cost about $7,000. At the high end, if for example significant electrical work is needed, the costs of a heat pump installation could rise to $38,800, the air district said.

    (One guy in Foster City), Mark Allen was expecting at least a $2,500 rebate from his electricity provider but is still navigating the reimbursement process. “No kidding, 16 emails back-and-forth, we still did not have a permit and almost 2½, 3 months had gone by,” Allen said. When he got the necessary paperwork and submitted the rebate, the electricity provider said he was past the deadline.

    Beyond the higher expense, heat pump water heaters can be larger, louder and slower to heat water than their natural gas counterparts.  “If you have the right setup for it, yes, it could be good. But I personally would never want to put one in my house,” said Chris Guslani, the owner of Bay Area Water Heaters, which installs natural gas water heaters as well as the occasional heat pump. “They don’t heat up as fast, they’re loud, they’re huge.”

    Both (120V and 240V) models will produce noise comparable to a refrigerator, which is similar to the noise of a natural gas water heater. But the heat pump will often run for twice as long, Guslani said. Homes typically have 50- or 65-gallon tanks to hold hot water. Once that is exhausted, 120-volt models can typically heat from seven to 15 gallons of water per hour, while 240-volt water heaters can warm approximately 18 gallons to 23 gallons if its hybrid mode, which uses traditional electric water heater elements to warm water faster, is unlocked, installers said.  A gas-powered water heater can heat about 30 gallons of water per hour.

    Guslani said that in about 60% of cases he’s seen, gas water heaters operate in spaces without any wall sockets. And manufacturers warn against using extension cords for water heaters. Heat pump water heater tanks might need to be up to 15 gallons larger than those used with natural gas water heaters to account for slower heating times, according to the air district. Heat pumps, which are often a foot taller than natural gas models, also typically need to be installed in rooms with more than 700 cubic feet to allow for adequate airflow.

    There’s more that I will add as a comment, but it all reminds me of “Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” The bureaucrats are expected to vote on who gets exemptions in October, so let the virtue signaling begin. One of our County Supes, Ray Mueller, is tapping the brakes on the idea or at least the Jan. 1, 2027 start date.  

  • Water Rate$: Feel the tip of the nozzle

    I knew what was coming when I opened this morning’s Comicle and saw the front-page headline: “S.F. water and sewer rates may rise in July.” As an avid water-watcher and a firm believer in the phrase “when EssEff sneezes, B’game gets a cold” I knew it wasn’t just S.F. rates they were talking about. And indeed, going to the Comicle website to grab a couple of snippets delivered a much more accurate headline: “San Francisco is about to hike up water rates — and much of the Bay Area will feel it” And feel it we will.

    San Francisco is planning to sharply raise water and sewer rates over the coming decade, beginning with a nearly 25% projected bump in residential bills over the next two years, as the growing cost of maintaining the city’s waterworks comes due. This summer, the average single-family household bill for combined water and sewer service will increase from $171 a month to $189 a month, and next summer it will rise to $212 a month, according to estimates in the rate-hike proposal scheduled for approval next week. Officials expect that utility rates will continue to climb through at least 2036, though at varying levels.

    We are a wholesale customer of SFPUC and the Hetch Hetchy feed for most of our water which you can read about from my tour last year here. If they go up, we go up.

    The SFPUC’s water, in addition to serving San Francisco, goes to about two dozen wholesalers in San Mateo, Santa Clara and Alameda counties. The water rate for these suppliers is set to increase 7.4% this summer, compared to a 2.3% rise last year. 

    After the Comicle covered the improvements needed in the city, our shared part was revealed

    Smaller, yet significant outlays are going toward water supply projects, including repairs to the 19-mile Mountain Tunnel and replacement of the century-old Moccasin Penstocks, both of which are in the Sierra Nevada and are critical for San Francisco’s long-distance water deliveries.

    All this infrastructure costs money, but some groups think SFPUC is spending too much

    At least two environmental groups are calling on the SFPUC to go further. The Sierra Club’s San Francisco Bay chapter and the Yosemite Rivers Alliance, formerly Tuolumne River Trust, want the agency to re-evaluate its water supply needs, believing the city has long overestimated its demand and consequently overbuilt its infrastructure. The Yosemite Rivers Alliance and Sierra Club have asked the SFPUC to downgrade a worst-case water scenario that it plans for — a severe drought lasting roughly 8 years — arguing that this event is highly improbable and requires amassing too much water.

    But we know from our own Urban Water Management Plan flaws that just because they say they are planning for an 8-year drought doesn’t mean anything real is happening–even over a 5-year scenario. I won’t retype the real story but rather just point you to the infamous Table 7-6 described here. We are creeping up on the deadline for the every-five-years revision, and we have a new Public Works director so we shall see if 7-6 gets a real update. Either way, our checkbooks will be lighter soon for at least the next 10 years……

  • A Wet Merry Christmas to All

    After a dramatic Christmas Eve and Christmas morning with gusts to 70 mph and intermittent downpours with SFO in “reverse operations” so takeoff go right over B’game, here is the 2pm view of my favorite flooding spot on ECR.

    The SamTrans driver knows to change lanes as do most of the other drivers–until it gets dark in a couple of hours. Be safe out there everyone. Only three more years to go until this is fixed……

  • Natural Gas Gets a Reprieve?

    This is an interesting month in the climate wars with Bill Gates issuing a statement that basically said “nevermind” after years of haranguing us, eight miles of rainforest cut down for a climate conference in Brazil and some of our local governments trying to keep their all-electric “reach codes” on life support. Per the DJ:

    After some legal hiccups, cities throughout the region, including San Mateo, are revisiting policies that incentivize use of electric appliances and penalize reliance on gas infrastructure in homes and buildings.

    That “legal hiccup” was the Ninth Circuit eviscerating Berkeley’s overreach on natural gas. Our neighboring city to the south is reacting with a revision that

    Would require single-family homes, duplexes, townhomes and commercial buildings to install either a heat pump or higher-efficiency air conditioner at the time the original AC unit needs replacement.  The potential reach code would also require the addition of electric infrastructure when certain types of renovations are already underway.

    Then San Mateo broached a “scoring” system to award points to homeowners for choosing various electric-only options. You would not be wrong to compare that to the CCP’s Social Credit system. At least one councilor has a glimmer of understanding about complexity (i.e. staff time) and costs although it apparently didn’t deter her from plunging ahead.

    This is already going to be really complicated to understand, but it’s also an opportunity to really bring our community along because with a number of the other reach codes, there have been real cost issues associated with them, where people thinking the cost was going to be X, and the cost ends up being X plus 50%,” Councilmember Lisa Diaz Nash said.

    Here are a few of the costs that get us to X + 50% —or way more–2X, 3X?. Things have gotten even more expensive than when I wrote that five years ago. Some day I would love to see the DJ or the Daily Post survey council members up and down the Peninsula (and County supes) to see if any of them are all-electric. Aside from new construction, I’ll be it’s very very few.

  • EV market struggles continue

    There is a steady drumbeat of bad news for the EV market as manufacturer after manufacturer cuts forecasts, lays off workers, idles battery and car plants while discounting the inventory to offset the loss of the $7,500 taxpayer subsidy. Couple that with half of the country dissing the owner of the most popular EV company and the on-going struggles with keeping chargers in working order and it seems like Waymo is the only real growth in the EV world. Here are some snippets from the news:

    The growth rate for new EV sales in the U.S. dropped from 40% in 2023 to about 10% in 2024. In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. sales declined 6.3% year-on-year. 

    GM plans to lay off more than 3,300 hourly workers at plants across Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee starting in January. Of those, more than 1,700 are being laid off indefinitely, while more than 1,500 are expected to be called back in mid-2026. Ford is moving workers from the plant that makes the electric F-150 Lightning to a nearby factory that makes the more popular—and profitable—gasoline-burning version. Nissan has decided not to offer its Ariya EV as a 2026 model and Honda has halted orders of the electric Acura ZDX, which is manufactured by GM.

    Porshe is facing financial decline due to a strategic shift away from rapid EV adoption, resulting in a recent quarterly loss, a profit plunge, and significant one-time costs of about $3.1 billion. This “EV reset” involves pausing new electric models, delaying some launches, and re-evaluating the strategy, driven by cooling EV demand, especially in the luxury segment.

    Here in B’game my main interest is in making sure the goofy EV parking rules we see in places like Top Golf don’t proliferate. The whole row of spaces near the front entrance (probably 40 or so) are EV-only as is the front row of the lower parking lot. Why? Who knows? It’s not because of chargers because there ain’t no chargers for many of the spaces. Check it out. Parking discrimination!

  • Climate: Koonin part 3: Back with a new report

    I touched on Steven Koonin's book Unsettled three years ago here.  It remains an import read for anyone really interested in climate change as opposed to just the media spin on it.  The book delves into detail on the metrics, the models and the variability of things we read about as "settled science".  Koonin has a piece in the WSJ this week that notes:

    There is a disconnect between public perceptions of climate change and climate science—and between past government reports and the science itself. Energy Secretary Chris Wright understands this. It’s why he commissioned an independent assessment by a team of five senior scientists, including me, to provide clearer insights into what’s known and not about the changing climate.

    He then nets it out saying Among the report’s key findings:

    • Elevated carbon-dioxide levels enhance plant growth, contributing to global greening and increased agricultural productivity.

    • Complex climate models provide limited guidance on the climate’s response to rising carbon-dioxide levels. Overly sensitive models, often using extreme scenarios, have exaggerated future warming projections and consequences.

    • Data aggregated over the continental U.S. show no significant long-term trends in most extreme weather events. Claims of more frequent or intense hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and dryness in America aren’t supported by historical records.

    • While global sea levels have risen about 8 inches since 1900, aggregate U.S. tide-gauge data don’t show the long-term acceleration expected from a warming globe.

    • Natural climate variability, data limitations and model deficiencies complicate efforts to attribute specific climate changes or extreme events to human CO2 emissions.

    • The use of the words “existential,” “crisis” and “emergency” to describe the projected effects of human-caused warming on the U.S. economy finds scant support in the data.

    • Overly aggressive policies aimed at reducing emissions could do more harm than good by hiking the cost of energy and degrading its reliability. Even the most ambitious reductions in U.S. emissions would have little direct effect on global emissions and an even smaller effect on climate trends.

    We've become immune to throw away lines in lightweight mainstream media articles (looking at you SF Comicle) that toss in "climate change" when talking about anything from insurance rates to hurricanes to endangered salamanders.  The seven bullet points above suggest that is at least as dangerous and the changes happening to the climate.

  • B’game: At least we have nice weather

    I get a fair amount of "What's up with California?" messages from my East Coast friends.  Much of what they are asking about I am unable to explain without a grimace.  But the standard closing text is "At least we have nice weather".  There is another episode of me with "Mark at the Mic" Lucchesi coming soon.  We recorded it last week and as Mark and I were commiserating about some of the same things my Eastern friends poke at, you will get a chance to hear me say "at least we have nice weather".

    And we do.  I would go so far as to say that being someone who likes things a little on the cool side, we have spectacular weather.  We are on track for the coldest first half of summer either since 1965 or in the last thirty years, depending on who one listens to.  I love it.  Remember.  Weather is not climate so draw no conclusions of any kind about that.  I love daylight savings time and the Golden Hour before sunset.  Here was the sight last night around 7:30 during a spectacular B'game evening.

    Clouds in July

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