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Covid Tracking: One Year In

Rather than having to scroll through 50 comments to get to the weekend update on the last Covid post from early December, let's start a fresh thread.  We are about one year into this pandemic.  I'm reminded by the fact the Super Bowl is three weeks away, that the best thing to happen to the Bay Area in this ordeal was the Niners losing the game and not having a parade.  A million people lining Market St. shoulder-to-shoulder for several hours would have been devastating since we know the virus was already here.

So the weekend update from the County website is

Total Cases: 31,204 (+3,450 from last week, increasing more than a 1,000)

R-eff: 1.09 (down 0.19 from last week)

Positivity: 4.3% since last March. 6.5% for the last 30 days which is up .1% in the last seven days–stable.

Burlingame Cases: 799 (+89 similar to +82 and +88 the last two weeks–stable.)

The Burlingame numbers may be larger due to the count at the Burlingame Skilled Nursing facility.  The Daily Journal reported that "A recent COVID-19 outbreak resulting in the infection of 118 residents, 49 staff and one employee’s death at Burlingame Skilled Nursing…Burlingame Skilled Nursing management informed the Ombudsman and the county of the outbreak a week ago, said Bernie Mellott, and the National Guard was called in to assist the facility."

That would be 15% of our total case count.

Posted in

45 responses to “Covid Tracking: One Year In”

  1. Joe

    Today’s DJ piece quoting Dr. Scott:
    Calling on San Mateo County residents to practice patience while waiting for a COVID-19 vaccine, Health Officer Dr. Scott Morrow released a statement Tuesday highlighting how an insufficient supply chain will result in many receiving their first dose by the late summer.
    “We are in a textbook rationing situation. We have more demand than supply,” said Morrow’s statement. “We all want to go faster, but until this supply issue is ameliorated, we won’t be able to.”
    Despite supply issues, Morrow was hesitant to agree with those “Monday morning quarterbacking” vaccine distributions who have claimed California is behind other states. Instead, he suggested the state faces three issues — insufficient vaccine supply, incomplete and inaccurate data and federal allocation shortfalls.
    https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/top-san-mateo-county-health-official-addresses-vaccine-distribution-concerns/article_d3f22f9e-5add-11eb-a7f2-a7d1642cf882#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1611154803&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline
    I forgot where I read it so cannot post it, but California is near the bottom of all states in vaccinations per capita.

  2. Joe – updated numbers

    Here is the weekend update:
    Total Cases: 33,731 (+2,527 from last week, a nice drop in the rate)
    R-eff: 1.04 (down again by.05 from last week)
    Positivity: 4.4% since last March. 6.6% for the last 30 days which is up another .1% in the last seven days–so stable.
    Burlingame Cases: 913 (+114 from last week so ~30% higher than the last three weeks new cases)
    The media story line from Fauci to London Breed is that cases have “peaked”. We will see if that is just wishful thinking and post-inauguration spin, or not.

  3. Gavinius Caesar

    I, Gavinius Caesar, do hereby declare my subjects shall now operate with the regal purple status. They shall be allowed to eat outdoors except at the French Laundry. I hereby reserve it for myself.

  4. Joe – numbers updated

    Here is the weekend update:
    Total Cases: 33,731 (+1,735 from last week, aother nice drop in the rate by 800)
    R-eff: 0.91 (down again by a lot- .13 from last week)
    Positivity: 4.4% since last March is the same. 5.8% for the last 30 days which is down 0.8%.
    Burlingame Cases: 968 (+55 from last week so less than half as many as last week)
    13,213 people have completed the vaccination process in the County and another 45,000 have the first shot.
    While the reopening and move to the purple tier was a surprise to many, if the trend continues it might just stick.

  5. Joe – Super Bowl weekend update on the numbers

    Here is the Super Bowl weekend update:
    Total Cases: 36,689 (+2,958 from last week, which is up by 1,223 from last week’s increase)
    R-eff: 0.80 (down by a lot again- .11 after dropping .13 last week)
    Positivity: 4.3% since last March is down because the last 30 days rate dropped almost a percentage point to 4.9%. That means this last week must have seen a lot of testing but had lower positivity.
    Burlingame Cases: 1.021 (+53 from last week which is the same as the prior week (+55))
    Parklet dining appeared pretty busy. Broadway is looking like one big parklet. And the Supreme Court ruling this week would appear to let indoor church services at 25% capacity resume.
    Stay safe as you watch the Super Bowl commercials.

  6. Peter Garrison

    Thanks for the updates and explanations, Joe.

  7. Joe – Weekend updated numbers

    It looks to have been a very good week compared to the last few months. I personally know a few people who have gotten their first shot and two who have gotten their second already.
    Total Cases: 37,621 (+932 which is less than a third of last week’s increase)
    R-eff: 0.76 (down again -.04)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped more than a percentage point to 3.8% after dropping almost a full percent last week.
    Burlingame Cases: 1,062 (+41 from last week which lower by 12 than the prior week).

  8. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    More progress! This is great news.
    Total Cases: 38,229 (+608 which down another third from last week’s increase)
    R-eff: 0.69 (down again -.07)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .7% to 3.1%.
    Burlingame Cases: 1,086 (+24 from last week which about half of the prior week).
    I read a piece from a Johns Hopkins MD that asserted we would be at herd immunity by April. Let’s hope so.

  9. Joe – Weekend updated numbers

    More good news this week:
    Total Cases: 38,729 (+500 from last week which down another 18% from last week’s increase)
    R-eff: 0.72 (up 0.03)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .7% to 2.4% after dropping .7% last week as well.
    Burlingame Cases: 1,108 (+22 from last week which about the same as the prior week).
    While the news is generally good, the worries over the new variants’ higher contagiousness (B.1.1.7 and B.1.427/B.1.429) merit sticking with the plan.

  10. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    This weekend update is REALLY good. Really good. You can feel the optimism on the Avenue–maybe a bit too much optimism from some people where mask protocol is tapering off a little. But with 25.6% of the County age 16+ vaccinated, there is reason for optimism.
    Total Cases: 39,048 (+319 in the County from last week which down another 36% from last week’s increase–declining at twice the rate!)
    R-eff: 0.77 (up 0.05)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .6% to 1.8% after dropping .7% each of the last two weeks.
    Burlingame Cases: 1,119 (+11 from last week which is half as many as each of the last two weeks).
    You read that right, 11 new cases in B’game last week. Stick to it, people.

  11. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    It looks like we are headed for Orange this coming week.
    Total Cases: 39,393 (+345 in the County which is about the same as last week)
    R-eff: 0.72 (down 0.05)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .3% to 1.5%.
    Burlingame Cases: 1,129 (+10 from last week which was +11 from the prior week).
    Also in a news release on Thursday, the county said that health care providers are expected to identify those who will become eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine on Mar. 15, when individuals aged 16 to 64 with certain health conditions can register.
    “We expect health care providers to identify those who will become eligible to be vaccinated starting March 15th based on specific medical conditions,” said Dr. Anand Chabra, the county’s COVID-19 vaccination branch chief.
    As of Wednesday, 181,504 people have been vaccinated in San Mateo County. (Note: that is about 25% of the county)

  12. Joe

    For the “What could go wrong file” from Calmatters.org:
    Today, millions of Californians will become eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine, inundating a system already straining under the weight of limited supply, pervasive tech glitches, political infighting and general confusion.
    Originally, only Californians with disabilities and severe health conditions were set to become eligible for the vaccine today. But the state on Thursday expanded prioritization to public transit workers, commercial airline employees, homeless Californians and those in federal immigrant detention centers, among others. With 40% of the state’s vaccine supply reserved for low-income communities and another 10% set aside for education workers, there isn’t much left to go around.
    Further complicating matters, California isn’t requiring those with underlying health conditions to verify their diagnosis or disability. Though the move was applauded by many disability and privacy advocates, the state’s reliance on the honor system also paves the way for people to cut the line — a repeated occurrence that has resulted in young, healthy residents obtaining doses intended for vulnerable Californians.
    Meanwhile, disagreements over vaccine distribution continue to fester between counties and the state.
    ————
    Nice work, Gavin.

  13. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    There are lots of mentions of the one-year anniversary of this and that closing this week. The County went to orange mid-week and here is why:
    Total Cases: 39,742 (+349 in the County which is just 4 more than last week and about the same as the prior week)
    R-eff: 0.75 (up 0.03)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .3% to 1.2% after dropping .3% the week before. Fewer than 2,000 new cases in the last 30 days.
    Burlingame Cases: 1,147 (+18 from last week which was +10 from the prior week which was +11 from the week before that).
    Now that the Newsom recall is well on it’s way, Gavin is touting the full availability of vaccines for everyone by the end of April. We’ll see,

  14. MBGA

    Only 15 more days to flatten the curve.

  15. Spurinna

    Someone mentioned that if a Democrat enters the recall race then Newsom is finished.
    His “good friend” L.A. Mayor Garcetti, ventured the opinion on how the pandemic could have been handled more efficiently…
    A first conspiratorial wink at the Forum?

  16. Gavinius Caesar

    I, Gavinius Caesar, declare we have 1.8% positivity today, that’s lower than all but three states in the country,” he said. “We have lower death rates than the vast majority of states this country, certainly much lower than places like Florida and Texas. I believe we’ve saved lives. We’re led by science, we’re lead by health, led by data.
    Do not listen to the facts that do not fit my story.
    While California did have lower death rates than most of the country ahead of the winter surge, when ranked from highest to lowest, it places 28th among 50 states with 143 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 residents. For reference, Florida ranks 27th with 151, and Texas ranks 24th with 161.

  17. MBGA

    The death rates are easily distorted by how they are counted.
    The positive cases are easily distorted by how many PCR cycles they are using at any particular time.
    I wonder if this is common knowledge. <- I'm not finishing that sentence with a question mark.

  18. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    Things are still looking pretty stable:
    Total Cases: 40,186 (+444 in the County which is about 100 more than last week, so some acceleration)
    R-eff: 0.78 (up another 0.03)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .2% to 1.0% after dropping .3% in each of the two weeks prior.
    Burlingame Cases: 1,169 (+22 from last week compared to +18 the week prior. 78 cases in the last 30 days in town).
    Those of us between age 50 and 65 can start getting vaccinated next Thursday (April 1st). It will be interesting to see what the wait time is then.

  19. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    Whether we are following the science or following the Newsom recall progress, things are opening up faster and faster. This week a new “Green” tier has been proposed and more indoor events are partially restarting in two weeks
    Total Cases: 40,542 (+356 in the County which is about 100 less than last week)
    R-eff: 0.97 (up a lot–.19 which is odd)
    Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .1% to .9%
    Burlingame Cases: 1,188 (+19 after +22 from last week and +18 the week prior. Very stable with 80 cases in the last 30 days).

  20. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    The scramble for vaccinations is on. Lots of people have one or both, but apparently the supply is not strong in San Mateo County. The DJ noted “Vaccine supply has long been an issue in the county and officials have routinely noted that the number of doses received fall substantially short of demand. Supply became increasingly constrained as the state began to direct 40% of doses to its most underserved communities, none of which are in San Mateo County and only 10 falling in the greater Bay Area.” Here are the numbers for the week:
    Total Cases: 40,754 (+212 in the County which is about 150 less than last week)
    R-eff: 0.97 ( the same)
    Positivity: .9% (the same)
    Burlingame Cases: 1,199 (+11 from last week. Very stable with 78 cases in the last 30 days).

  21. ___Underscore

    Is it possible to tell the difference between flu symptoms and COVID-19 symptoms?
    They can not tell the difference between Covid or the Flu according to Doctors.
    As they say;
    “I think it’s tough because both the flu and COVID-19 can have a variety of overlapping symptoms,” said Fahimi. Those symptoms can include fever, chills and body aches, upper respiratory symptoms like runny nose and sore throat, lower respiratory symptoms like cough and pneumonia, and some gastrointestinal symptoms like nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

  22. HMB

    And that is why TESTING is so important. Because that’s how we’ll know if it’s flu going around or covid.

  23. Joe

    I absolutely agree, HMB. And thanks for the input. We do a lot of things here at the Voice, but dispensing medical advice ain’t one of them. Use a verified source, please.
    “A man’s got to know his limitations”
    -Dirty Harry

  24. Joe

    It was April 9th, not April 1st…………..
    http://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/san-mateo-county-vaccination-alert-error-causes-confusion

  25. Christopher Cooke

    I think we should have let everyone get vaccinated who wants it, and am very glad we are switching to this as of April 16. It is a race between vaccinating everyone as quickly as possible and new variants of the virus spreading quickly. It is better to run out of doses than to have doses go unused because of the vaccine hesitant.

  26. Joe

    I got my shot yesterday from Sutter Health at the SM County Event Center–right across from where the Grand Jury people wait.
    https://www.burlingamevoice.com/2021/03/the-wheels-of-justice#comments
    It was about a 40 minute wait to get in and a 15 minute wait to see if there would be any reaction. All in all, not bad. The Grand Jury parking lot still had hundreds of cars at 3:30pm.

  27. Water Sample Corp

    I looked up the vaccines on FDA to see what ones were approved.
    https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states
    To my amazement none of them are approved to ensure they work and do not present harm to humans especially any adverse effects as outlined in the FDA guidelines: https://vaers.hhs.gov/faq
    Of the 537 San Mateo County people who died from Covid 19 and the 502 in San Francisco the vast majority were over 65 years old and most were high risk. Serious but not the end of the world guys. Do the numbers and don’t listen to any newspapers except some of the scientific journals who have no axes to grind.
    Emergency Use releases don’t give me a warm and fuzzy.

  28. HMB

    My husband had a long wait for the Sutter vax clinic at the event center for his first shot but a short wait for his second one. I must have picked the right time (early afternoon) when I scheduled my first one because I had literally NO wait at all — there was no one ahead of me and I just walked right in. Because there was no traffic I got there early and was already on my way back to work at my scheduled appointment time. But Sutter scheduled me for my second dose in Santa Clara! So the drive alone will take a good chunk of time. Oh, well, at least I was lucky with the first one!

  29. Jollyoldwoman

    Not proven safe yet. J&J halted. Not let us hear from all the armchair medical experts.

  30. HMB

    J&J paused for literally one in a million, admittedly serious, possibly linked side effect.

  31. HMB

    From someone NOT an armchair medical expert: https://www.futurity.org/johnson-johnson-vaccine-pause-2548532/

  32. Sheraton

    Results are in: Statist know nothing about anything including the CDC, WHO, State Houses and the Whitehouse. Please stop handling/touching your mask and smartphone then touching everything all day long. You guys are killing us.

  33. Color me annoyed

    Joe, I also had an Apr 13 appt but cancelled it the day before after I read about J&J. This was about 24 hrs before they officially paused usage of J&J. Did they administer Moderna instead?? If that is the case then I am a bit peeved as I cancelled and now have to try to find a closer site that let’s say.. Crescent City!! UGH

  34. Color me annoyed

    I spelled canceled wrong twice. LOL Color me peeved again!

  35. Joe

    No, Color me annoyed, I was on the 12th and got the J&J. The announcement was on the 13th and the pause was either that day or the 14th. The more I read about the six J&J cases, the less concerned I get (no need for details) and now there is this:
    A study by Oxford University found the number of people who receive blood clots after getting vaccinated with a coronavirus vaccine are about the same for those who get Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as they are for the AstraZeneca vaccine that was produced with the university’s help. According to the study, 4 in 1 million people experience cerebral venous thrombosis after getting the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, versus 5 in 1 million people for the AstraZeneca vaccine.
    ————-
    Note the numbers of vaccinated people are larger for Pfizer and Moderna than J&J, so the 6 in 6.85M J&J rate might not be as accurate, but it is enough to cause me to be less concerned than I might be. Nothing in life is risk-free.

  36. Color me annoyed

    Thank you for the info. I agree with you regarding the small amount of cases but I am a big baby!! I suspect that since all of the cases were women that perhaps birth control pill use may be at play as well(?) due to clotting concerns. Who knows!? I’m not a doctor. LOL
    Regardless I will forge ahead and get one of the other two once I am fortunate enough to score an appt. Stay well!

  37. Peter Garrison

    It is wonderful to see faces again.
    Today at a small gathering of club friends, one woman, having long isolated, burst into happy tears after seeing her friends’ bare faces.
    Hope to “see” you all soon.

  38. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    It was a big week in COVID news with the J&J “pause”, today’s news that Pfizer and Moderna refused to work with J&J on studying clots (see above note that they all induce clots in a tiny, tiny percentage of people), and the big news that San Mateo County is running short. From today’s Comicle: “health officials in neighboring San Mateo County said they were not able to operate any first-dose clinics for the newly eligible on Thursday or Friday.”
    Here are the numbers for the week:
    Total Cases: 41,016 (+262 in the County which is 50 more than last week)
    Positivity: .9% (the same two weeks in a row)
    Burlingame Cases: 1,211 (+12 from last week which was +11 from the prior week. Very stable with 79 cases in the last 30 days).
    I went out to eat at a favorite restaurant on the other Broadway (Millbrae) last night and it was way busier than it was three weeks ago. Broadway was bustling. Let’s hope the County gets its fair share of vaccines.

  39. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    The J&J vaccine is back on the approved list which should help the shortage in San Mateo County. The Chron reported unused appointment slots in Marin where they have more shots than they apparently need at the moment. Great B’game news–one new case this past week!!
    Here are the numbers for the week:
    Total Cases: 41,292 (+276 in the County which is about the same as last week)
    Positivity: .8% (down a tenth)
    Burlingame Cases: 1,212 (just one new case this week).
    Keep up the good work, B’game

  40. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    Happy May Day. The news this week was disappointing as the Yellow Tier will not be reached in the next week or two as hoped last week. As of last Monday, 43% of the County over age 16 was vaccinated and the doses are arriving in volume again. Mass vaccinations are on again.
    Here are the numbers for the week:
    Total Cases: 41,4772 (+185 in the County which is 91 less than last week)
    Positivity: .8% (the same)
    Burlingame Cases: 1,233 (+21 this week which is a lot compared to the last few weeks–wonder what happened?).
    Let’s not blow it now.

  41. Joe – Weekend Update on the Numbers

    We appear to be at a very stable state over the last few weeks. The bar chart here:
    https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/county-data-dashboard
    shows that quite well.
    Here are the numbers for the week:
    Total Cases: 41,747 (+270 in the County which 85 more than last week)
    Positivity: .8% (the same again)
    Burlingame Cases: 1,243 (+10 this week).
    The hoped for move to “yellow” is a bouncing ball depending on which official is being quoted. The County reported yesterday that 75.1% of the population age 16+ has been vaccinated.

  42. Amazing

    Sue Lempert. Ugh. What a fossil. What a gasbag. Just clueless. The fossil repeats a Tucker Carlson clip about young kids wearing masks Or people who refuse to wear masks even when science says it will halt the spread to those who have yet to be vaccinated and will prevent new variants from gaining strength. Here’s a quote from Tucker Carlson on Fox. ‘Your response when you see children wearing masks as they play should be no different from our response to seeing someone beat a kid at Walmart … . Call the police immediately. Contact child protective services. Keep calling until someone arrives. What you are looking at is abuse. Child abuse.”
    The hag doesn’t try to argue the opposing point. She just winks and nods from her rocker and expects you will ignore the science about young kids and be outraged.

  43. MBGA

    Amazing, I kind of agree with you about Sue Lempert. Ugh, she is a fossil. And if you are younger than about 65 you might feel like calling her a hag, although that is sexist, and you should be cancelled from Facebook and Twitter (but Joe, not from here please).
    But your infatuation with scientism is a bit much. I’m not a medical scientist but I am able to do arithmeticy things like division, even with all those damn zeros. A lot of people like Resident Biden have problems with big numbers. In ol’white’joe’s case it is not ageist to point that weakness because it was well know throughout his 50 years in congress that he was not particularly bright. He was known by even those in his own party to be an idiot.
    Here’s a short two minute video that might be put your scientism into perspective.
    Check this out:



    The really crazy thing about that Sue Lempert person and that younger ranting Tucker is that they are actually expressing some concern for children in preference over us other fossils that are the ones dying (the couple pennies)(maybe it will turn out to be five, maybe six, who knows?).

  44. Joe

    Folks, let’s try to keep the discussion a bit more courteous. I won’t delete it, but it would be helpful if a) Ms. Lempert had actually tried to make her point instead of just running the Carlson snippet and blending it in with Galileo!
    So let me do as I say: headline in today’s Comicle: Few Virus Infections Seen in SF Schools. 20,000 students and staffers have been back at (live) school and there have been 20 cases reported since then all from “community transmission in unvaccinated people”. “In other words, zero cases were related to in-school transmission”.

  45. Joe

    Let the record show San Mateo County went to the Yellow Tier today. **thumbs up emoji here**

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