Having tracked the coronavirus spread in San Mateo County on a weekly basis here, I can say the basic trend is a straight line since July. You can see it graphically as well here. The fundamentals in our County from last Saturday are:
Cases: 9843 (up 321 this week, so a definite slowdown) – it was running about +450 for awhile
R-eff: .94 (magically dropping a little)
Positivity: 5.7% (exactly flat)
Burlingame Cases: 223 (up 8 for the week)
The County moved into the Red "substantial" tier bring modest reopening including playgrounds (as soon as the city gets signage in place), churches and gyms with tight attendance limits, etc. So what is next? According to the Chronicle, we will now need to have "racial equity" in order for small businesses and other endangered enterprises to get the go-ahead that comes with the orange "moderate" tier.
California public health officials Wednesday evening revealed the final metric that counties must meet before they can further reopen their economies. It’s a complicated marker meant to ensure that communities of color no longer bear the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic. The new metric requires each county to ensure that positive test rates in its most disadvantaged neighborhoods do not significantly lag behind the county’s overall positive rate. In order for a county to move to a less-restrictive tier, the disadvantaged neighborhoods — measured by a variety of social, health and economic factors — must come within 5% of the positive test rate required for that tier.
For example: Most of the Bay Area is in the red tier, and to advance to the less-restrictive orange tier requires a positive test rate between 2% and 4.9%. Under the new metric, each county must also prove that the positive test rate for its most disadvantaged neighborhoods is 5.2% or less.
Not only do we have to somehow shave at least .8% off of the positivity rate that has been stable for a long time, but we also have to do something special in the hotspots. I pulled the Healthy Places Index (HPI) off the state site and there are 157 census tracts in our county. Only 4 appear to be in the 4th quintile and none in the bottom. You have to wonder if this latest move is really the most holistically healthy for everyone and every business–and school– in the county? Here's the position of one of the experts
Dr. Bela Matyas, the Solano County health officer, said he had misgivings about the new metric, which he argued would not help counties fix decades of systemic health disparities that are to blame for the disproportionate spread of the virus in this pandemic. He added that the equity metric was hotly contested by many county health officers while state officials tried to work out the details.
“It’s an absurd ask. The metric has nothing to do with things over which we have control,” Matyas said Wednesday. “I am 100% behind trying to achieve health equity, but it’s got to be done in a way that makes sense. Having said that, there was a lot of pushback (from health officers) and what they ended up with is a lot more innocuous than what it could have been.”
So if you are trying to restart a small retail business that doesn't get a parklet or trying to get some of your expensive indoor restaurant space generating revenue, you are faced with the "absurd".
Update: Adding even more absurdity to the mix, check this out!
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