Some letter writer to the WSJ gets credit for this quip: "The two things government does best are nothing and overreact". He was writing about the Silicon Valley Bank bailout, but it fits perfectly with the gas-heater-haters at the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. I think it's time we disbanded the BAAQMD, fired its staff (who aren't working in the public interest), and send the city council people on the Board back to their cities to Do The Job They Were Elected To Do; which is to make good local decisions.
The back story is a bunch of elected officials, who collectively probably couldn't pass a college-level Physics test, have decided that we shall not have gas water heaters or gas furnaces. No soup for you even if your current set-up has been in existence for decades, works flawlessly during blackouts and costs way less than the alternative. The Chronicle attempted to quantify the cost of complying:
The new regulations prohibit the sale or installation of water heaters and furnaces that emit nitrogen oxides after 2027 and 2029, respectively. Electric water heaters and heat pumps are generally more expensive than their gas counterparts. People in older houses may face additional costs such as electrical panel upgrades, ductwork, rewiring or permits, though there are thousands of dollars of rebates and tax credits available at the federal, state and local levels to offset some of the cost differential.
The cost of installing a heat pump can vary widely, from $7,000 to more than $20,000, according to various studies and data collected from completed projects. Costs for electric water heaters can range from $2,000 to $7,000. Staff from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, the agency that adopted the zero nitrogen oxides regulations, presented average compliance costs at its approval hearing last week: $8,030 for a heat pump and $2,820 for an electric water heater.
The estimates come from a 2021 study published by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which collected total cost data from 1,739 projects in 15 states, including California, adjusted to the 2019 dollar. The same study also published average installation costs for gas appliances: $5,096 for a gas furnace and $1,972 for a gas water heater. Some people and groups have disputed these numbers from their own experience or by pointing to regional data that show much higher installation costs for heat pumps and electric water heaters.
They had California-specific costs (still not Bay Area-specific costs), but chose not to present them at the hearing before the vote–not that it would have mattered:
As part of the approval process, BAAQMD generated a socioeconomic impact analysis that included higher cost estimates from a 2019 Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) study specifically looking at California: between $7,000 to $20,000 of all-in costs for a heat pump depending on the type, and from $3,000 to $4,700 for a heat pump water heater.
The E3 study assumed that pre-1978 homes would need to upgrade to a panel of 200 amps when switching to both a heat pump and water heater, and estimated this would cost $4,256 for single-family homes and $2,744 for low-rise multifamily homes.
And there are higher costs from another data source and one person who highlights yet another unaccounted-for cost–TAXES:
Out of 9,895 heat pumps installed with Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost before incentives was $18,842, with an average total incentive of $3,433. For the 1,334 heat pump water heaters that received Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost was $7,054, with an average total incentive of $3,617.
The Tech CLEAN data tracks most closely to Redwood City resident Kent Holubar’s experience installing a heat pump last summer. Installation of Holubar’s Mitsubishi heat pump cost $17,875, with another $1,865 required for permits, bringing the total cost to $19,740, Holubar shared with The Chronicle.
Holubar had wanted to make the upgrade for a while and was able to do so with part of his mother’s estate after she passed away. But after the installation, Holubar received an annoying surprise: Holubar’s 1953 home was assessed at $10,000 more than it was before he installed the heat pump because of its air conditioning properties — adding extra property taxes every year, Holubar said.
Also lost in the ozone of government cost studies are the things I mentioned in my letter to the B'game city council and in the comments on the prior Natural Gas: Follow the Science? post. Things like removing the old pipes and vents, drywall repair and paint, roof repairs to fill the old holes, pouring concrete pads for the new equipment–the list goes on and on. BUT the big cost that none of these studies capture is the time and effort of the homeowner. It will likely be enormous and growing worse as the deadlines loom and pass. No more calling the water heater guy and answering one question: Do you want a 40 gallon or 50 gallon unit? Soon it will be "A Project" with all of the typical project management expenses in time, effort and money. Better to disband the Air Quality Board and leave people to transition if and when they want.
