Dedicated to Empowering and Informing the Burlingame Community

Having spent years in the field of market research, I can tell you a few truisms about the discipline.  1) Any pollster worth their salt can get any result their client desires.  2)  The sample chosen (not just size, but composition) drives results.  3)  Unless you see the actual questions and their order you can't understand the results.

With that in mind, let's see what Dan Walters of the Sac Bee noticed about the High Cost Rail survey

We should be as skeptical of the poll, however, as of the ridership projections.

Take the declaration, for instance, that "a clear majority of frequent intrastate travelers indicate that they would like to use the train once it is built."

The actual question was whether travelers would use it when told that riding the bullet train between San Francisco and Los Angeleswould cost less than an airline ticket and "much less than the cost of driving."

In other words, as the authority's deputy director Jeffrey Barker put it to reporters Tuesday, the train would be "a cheaper way to travel."

Of course the response to a "cheaper way to travel" would be positive, but it's very questionable premise.

It could be cheaper than driving only if the car carried just the driver and one counted the full-bore costs of driving, including depreciation, maintenance and insurance on the car, rather than merely the incremental cost of fuel for such a jaunt.

The authority's assumption that bullet train fares would be 83 percent of airline fares, meanwhile, is based on using the highest possible airline fares, rather than the more common and much-lower no-frills Southwest Airlines fares. It also assumes bullet train overhead is as modest as the authority's current "business plan" projects.

Regarding point 3 above, I hear that at least one group has filed a public records request for the raw data, so the real results of the survey have not yet been reported on.  Stay tuned.

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2 responses to “High Cost Rail – Part 25 Survey Fiction”

  1. dtn

    Only government bimbos like Nagel still believe in high speed rail. Her husband balances their checkbook because its not in her DNA to pay for what she uses. Did you see the lightbulb puff piece today in the Examiner? After she hypes these bulbs full of mercury she wonders where they will land in the garbage–what a moron.

  2. Clifford

    Results reporting can be skewed enormously as well. It could it be said that it is more valid that a total 55% have concerns or oppose the project. This was clearly a “Push Poll” designed with a certain outcome, to sell this project to the feds with the latest ARRA application. It is appalling that our tax dollars can be used against us in this way – all part of the $9 Million PR budget that was approved for public outreach!

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