There are two high-profile climate guys bucking the prevailing winds on global warming. They both acknowledge that some warming is happening–the questions are what to do about it? Will they work? How draconian should the measures be and how much is too much to spend on them? Even more importantly, they both "fix" numbers that preoccupy the press. We've discussed some of Steven Koonin's book Unsettled here and here. The other guy is Bjorn Lomborg and he is providing a big "fix" this week
As the United Nations’ annual global climate summit, COP27, nears, it’s important to look with skepticism at the academic reports many news outlets cite as evidence supporting radical climate policies. Too often, they use highly skewed data that seem to have been carefully selected to support aggressive environmental regulations. One recent and much-cited Lancet report appears deliberately deceptive.
The study offers a frightening statistic: Rapidly rising temperatures have increased annual global heat deaths among older people by 68% in less than two decades. That stark figure has been cited all over, from the BBC and Time to the Washington Post and the Times of India, the world’s largest-selling English-language daily. …the report commits an amateur statistical fallacy by blaming the increase in heat deaths on “rapidly increasing temperatures.”
Annual heat deaths have increased significantly among people 65 and older world-wide. The average deaths per year increased 68% from the early 2000s to the late 2010s. But that is almost entirely because there are so many more older people today than there were 20 years ago, in no small part thanks to medical innovations that keep us alive longer. Measured across the same time span the Lancet maps heat deaths, the number of people 65 and older has risen by 60%, or almost as much as heat deaths. When the increase in heat mortality is adjusted for this population growth, the actual rise that can be attributed to rising temperatures is only 5%.
Then Lomborg moves the needle from statistical fallacy to damn lie
I’ve actually raised this issue to the Lancet before. Last September the journal published a study with the same fallacious argument, and I sent the editor a detailed letter explaining the problem. The Lancet never corrected it and here it is, over a year later, committing the same error.
Before you go "But 5% is still bad", Lomborg goes on to note that cold kills way more people than heat and, in fact, "Based on today’s population size, the current temperatures cause about 17,000 more heat deaths in older people, but also result in more than half a million fewer cold deaths. Reporting one finding without the other is misleading about the true effect of climate change."
I saw him speak in Palo Alto last year and after his 90-minute pitch and 50+ detailed slides, one gets an appreciation of the complexity involved in "fixing" science. Here he is on stage



Leave a Reply