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Covid: Tracking gets blurry, so does prevention

Our last Covid tracking post was six months ago as we approached the holidays and it tracked the holiday surge through last week here.  Life may not have been simpler then, but it seemed clearer.  You did all the things they told you to do, hoped for the best and could essentially see how it was going in the County to gauge your own personal risk.  Those were the old days.  Now tracking is blurrier.  Home testing is private testing.  Symptoms can be so light that you think it's allergies–ask me how I know.  Past infections raise immunity for some period of time, but how long?  My neighbor got it, got through it and Kaiser told him to get a booster right away.  That seems over-protective while waiting a few months extends protection, but it's blurry.  The County dashboard that I use for the Saturday updates occasionally splashes a screen saying the numbers from the state are missing without explaining why we need the state to report our own County data.  Nonetheless, let's press on with tracking what we know and acknowledging what we don't know.

Here are the numbers for last week and they look terrible:

Total Cases: 134,492 – Up 6,902 in the County for the week — up 385% over last week's increase.

Burlingame Cases: 4,249 – Up by 186 over last week, so 63% higher than last week which was almost double the prior week. 367 cases in the last 30 days.

Hospitalizations in the County: 40, up by 11 and double two weeks ago.

The Spring surge (is that the 5th or 6th, I forget) is definitely here.  The County has a few new tidbits to advise here, but it sort of the same story.

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45 responses to “Covid: Tracking gets blurry, so does prevention”

  1. MBGA

    I want the pox report. When will county start posting? I’ve heard there’s a vax on the way.

  2. Joe

    Thanks, MBGA, that’s funny. Just came across the “wave count” for Covid–this is the fifth.

  3. Joe

    Anecdotally the surge continues and some of the people are getting pretty ill even having had a booster, etc. The B’game number jumped much more than the County rate which slowed down:
    Total Cases: 134,492 – Up 2,969 in the County for the week — down about 60% from last week’s jump.
    Burlingame Cases: 4,535 – Up by 286 over last week, so 54% higher than last week. 388 cases in the last 30 days so some of the increase might have been catching up from earlier.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 41–about the same.

  4. Joe

    Today’s Comicle headline asserts that we have seen the most recent peak and are in slight decline. That’s not born out by the SM County numbers. Alameda County brought back the indoor mask mandate as well. Here’s how the week went:
    Total Cases: 140,702 – Up 6,210 in the County for the week — double last week’s increase.
    Burlingame Cases: 4,535 – Up by 108 over last week, so less than half of last week’s increase. 436 cases in the last 30 days.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 31–down 25%.

  5. Joe

    Moderna’s announcement of a new vax for Omicron was accompanied by talk of new variants popped up this week with BA.4 and BA.5. BA.5 is now 7.6% of cases nationally. Locally our week looked like this:
    Total Cases: 143,453 – Up 2,751 in the County for the week — less than half of last week’s increase.
    Burlingame Cases: 4,746 – Up by 211 over last week, so almost double last week’s increase. 437 cases in the last 30 days–flat which is odd given the increase.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 38 – about the same

  6. Joe

    Even with more summer socializing, the numbers show a pretty quiet week Covid-wise:
    Total Cases: 146,098 – Up 2,645 in the County for the week — flat week over week.
    Burlingame Cases: 4,746 – Up by 70 over last week, so a notable slow down. 401 cases in the last 30 days–as things taper down.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 43 – about the same

  7. Joe

    It was another pretty average week in the County according to the official numbers. I heard of several breakthrough-boosted cases among friends and acquaintances. Also keep hearing the Moderna booster will kick yer butt:
    Total Cases: 148,771 – Up 2,673 in the County for the week — flat week over week again.
    Burlingame Cases: 4,746 – Up by 164 over last week, so more than double. 396 cases in the last 30 days–flat week over week as a higher week this week replaces a higher week a month ago.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 28 – down 15

  8. Joe

    As I said in the original post from May, things are blurry out there Covid-wise. You can read all about the BA.4 and BA.5 and how there is a surge. You can read about the government telling Pfizer they should update their vax–like Pfizer did know that and hasn’t been working on it for weeks or months….but here we see about the same numbers as the last few weeks:
    Total Cases: 151,848 – Up 3,077 in the County for the week — up about 15%.
    Burlingame Cases: the county website is having a “data source error”
    Hospitalizations in the County: 39 – up 11

  9. Literally- The Straight Poop on Covid- The Sewage Numbers

    If you want the straight poop, then go to the SM County COVID Sewage Data. It will tell you that we are far worse off than at any time prior.
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article263044553
    Yes, we are in Deep Shit (pun intended) While deaths are down, the anecdotal data of long effects of COVID and after effects are real (and debilitating.)
    Outbreaks at summer camps, travel related, etc show we are spreading faster Creamy Skippy on White Bread.
    The poop data and the NY Times data shows that SM County is so hot it looks like we’ve been on a “habanero cleanse” of COVID. We are Red Hot on COVID.

  10. Joe

    It was another week of BA.5 subvariant headlines but the County numbers don’t align with the headlines as it was a relatively quiet week here:
    Total Cases: 154,369 – Up 2,521 in the County for the week — 80% of the prior week’s rise.
    Burlingame Cases: 5091 with 473 in the last 30 days so pretty flat
    Hospitalizations in the County: 32 – also flat

  11. Peter Garrison

    Thanks Joe.

  12. Joe

    This is the week the Prez got it and is taking Paxlovid and talk of the surge continues. I missed posting last week, so here are the two-week numbers:
    Total Cases: 159,318 – Up 4,949 in the County for two weeks or 2,475 per week — the same as two weeks ago!
    Burlingame Cases: 5,175 with 469 in the last 30 days–up only 83 in two weeks as reported, but it has to be higher than that.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 39 – also mostly flat
    The surge must be mostly being handled by people on their own since the numbers don’t show it.

  13. Cassandra

    Like the flu it always was.

  14. Joe

    The news this week was all about monkeypox and had a terrible deja vu feel to it. But in Covid news, the Daily Journal ran a piece that gets to the question of how blurry the numbers are. It was obvious two months ago when I made this post that the official count was an undercount. Now some UCSF researchers are estimating that 80% of the test results go uncounted. So we would need to really increase these numbers for the week:
    Total Cases: 161,234 – Up 1,916 in the County for the week so pretty flat.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,271 up 96 for the week.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 54 – a noticeable jump.
    BART just reinstated the mask mandate, but I don’t know anyone who is using BART with any regularity and not just because of Covid.

  15. Joe

    It was another week of steady drumbeats on Covid. Keeping mind the undercounts from home testing, here are the numbers for the week from the County:
    Total Cases: 163,012 – Up 1,778 in the County for the week so down a bit but pretty flat.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,393 up 122 for the week–a bit of a rise.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 52 – also flat.

  16. HMB

    I know this is anecdotal, but it’s an example of how much havoc covid can cause for families. Have a friend with two preschool-age kids. The whole family got covid this summer. For him and his wife, it was “minor” — each felt knocked out with fever for a day or two but after that got better every day. One kid got so sick he had to be hospitalized. Other kid was really sick for about two weeks with lethargy and fever before he started getting better — dad said basically all the kid could do was lie in bed or on the couch sleeping/dozing, often crying because he felt so miserable. Meanwhile, parents couldn’t work for weeks between them and the kids being sick — being in isolation while they were still positive, taking care of kids sick/hospitalized, not being able to put kids back in child care until they were well and no longer positive, etc. Luckily they have jobs/employers where they were able to take the time off and don’t live paycheck to paycheck to have to go back to work while they and the kids were dealing with illness running through the family. And they were surprised that their kids got so sick because young kids supposedly don’t get that sick from covid.

  17. Joe

    Useful anecdote, HMB. I had a similar conversation with a friend this week who got it with his wife and each had a very rough week.

  18. HMB

    I guess my point is that even if you think of covid as a bad flu, it can be very disruptive to your life, esp if you have young kids. My childless friends, family and acquaintances generally fared well, though I know a few who said they had to take a daily nap for over a month because of fatigue. And a few said that they had incredible night sweats for a couple of weeks — that between the high fever of the first couple of days and the sweating they could see how someone could get dangerously dehydrated.So drink plenty of fluids if you get it!

  19. Paloma Ave

    HMB – The correct word would be childfree, not childless.

  20. HMB

    Apologies, Paloma and others — point taken!

  21. Joe

    It seems like it was a relatively quiet week Covid-wise. I heard of one friend who got it. No instances of rebound cases aside from the one in the news. I just saw the top comment above asking about monkeypox back in May. The County just punts the question to the state which you can find here: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Monkeypox-Data.aspx
    Back on Covid, here are the numbers for the week
    Total Cases: 164,519 – Up 1,507 in the County for the week so down a bit again.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,445 up 52 for the week–so a clear slowdown.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 43 – also down.

  22. Joe

    Today’s headline “County in low risk CDC tier”. My observation: people shopping in Safeway and elsewhere have not gotten the message yet. There was also a bit of news I had not seen before: “Politics drives many CDC decisions, including one last spring not to collect information on breakthrough Covid cases lest this show declining vaccine efficacy.” That was exactly the data I was hoping to get months ago. C’est la vie. The leveling off continued in the county this week.
    Total Cases: 165,680 – Up 1,161 in the County for the week so down a bit yet again.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,499 up 54 for the week–flat.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 27 – almost half of last week.

  23. Joe

    In the same week that Fauci announces his retirement, the WSJ is quoting the London Telegraph with this data:
    For 14 of the past 15 weeks, England and Wales have averaged around 1,000 extra deaths each week, none of which are due to Covid.
    If the current trajectory continues, the number of non-Covid excess deaths will soon outstrip deaths from the virus this year—and be even more deadly than the omicron wave.
    So what is going on? Experts believe decisions taken by the Government in the earliest stages of the pandemic may now be coming back to bite.
    ——————
    Expect to see similar numbers here as the delayed care effects of the lockdown surface. In the County this week:
    Total Cases: 166,644 – Up 964 in the County for the week so down a bit several weeks in a row.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,523 up 24 for the week–less than half of last week’s increase.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 17 – almost half again of last week.

  24. Joe

    The bivalent vaccine was approved this week so the new cocktail for Fall jabs is on the way. There was talk about a bivalent Covid plus flu shot (trivalent?) but I don’t think it is really on the horizon. Here are the numbers for the week:
    Total Cases: 167,348 – Up 704 in the County for the week so down a bit again.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,547 up 24 again for the week so very moderate.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 22 – a slight uptick.
    I went to the Greek Festival in Belmont yesterday. It’s a long time favorite event. Things were pretty close to “back to normal” except the inside cafeteria food line was not in effect. All food service was outside although you could walk back inside to eat it. Stay cool this Labor Day weekend!

  25. Joe

    People seem to be continuously relaxing a little about this. I notice fewer masks and less social distancing going on. Here’s the week’s numbers
    Total Cases: 168,111 – Up 763 in the County for the week so pretty flat for several weeks.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,576 up 29 for the week so very moderate.
    Hospitalizations in the County: 23 – flat also.
    The newest booster is out so people are queueing up to get that.

  26. resident

    I heard on 60 minutes that the pandemic is over. Spread the word. Can we get rid of the ugly parklets?

  27. Joe

    I skipped the update last weekend, so this is two weeks’ worth of data:
    Total Cases: 169,431 – Up 1,320 in the County for two weeks so down a bit on a weekly basis.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,635 up 59 for the two weeks so flat.
    Perhaps I am just more attuned to it because of these updates, but the mask-wearing seems to be back on the upswing. There are more KN-95s available and in use, but the basic paper mask or designer cloth ones continue to be used even with their degraded performance known.

  28. Joe

    This week brought a new variant: the CDC “started to track the BF.7, a new Omicron subvariant. BF.7’s spike protein has an extra genetic mutation compared with BA.5, and it is the third most-prevalent strain, accounting for 2.3% of all US COVID-19 cases for the week ending Saturday.”
    The numbers for the week in the County are:
    Total Cases: 170,136 – Up 705 in the County so basically the same for weeks in a row.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,664 up 29 for the two weeks lower than recent weeks.

  29. Joe

    It’s new subvariant week on the Covid front. BF.7 BQ.1 BQ.1.1 BA4.6 and on and on. I skipped last week, so here are the numbers for the fortnight in the County:
    Total Cases: 171,175 – Up 1,039 in the County for two weeks, so slowing down more.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,714 up 50 for the two weeks so also lower than recent weeks.
    The question is still how much these numbers undercount because most people are not reporting or seeking much treatment?

  30. Gavinius Caesar

    I, Gavinius Caesar, hereby declare the pandemic to be over next Februarius. Do not doubt my divine insight into the timing.

  31. HMB

    The numbers must be off like crazy. I know more people sick than ever with covid. Fortunately most people seem to be doing OK — like worst flu ever for a week and then another week of feeling really weak and easily tired, and then a lingering cough for 4-6 weeks. Not to mention my co-workers with young kids getting sniffles and stomach bugs that are spreading at day care. We’re stocking up on hand sanitizer and kleenex at the office.

  32. Joe

    The topic of boosters for the Fall is on everyone’s mind. Will they work against the sub-variants? When is the optimum time to do it? Stick with whatever brand you started with? Do the flu shot at the same time? Lots of questions. Here’s is the every-other-week update on the numbers
    Total Cases: 172,179 – Up 1,004 in the County for two weeks, so flat over the start of October.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,749 up only 35 for the two weeks so also lower than recent weeks.
    I haven’t heard of many cases but I also don’t doubt HMB’s observation either.

  33. Joe

    All the talk this week is about the triple threat of an early flu season, RSV among mostly kids and Covid. The numbers, while still incomplete since they come from the County according to what is reported, are up lately.
    Here’s is the every-other-week update on the numbers
    Total Cases: 173,443 – Up 1,264 in the County for two weeks, so up about 20% over the start of October.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,819 up 70 for the two weeks so double the number from recent weeks.

  34. HMB

    My it’s-so-wonderful-to-have-everyone-back-in-the-office boss missed the annual, in-person, fly-in-all-the-remote-people retreat … because she got covid.

  35. Joe

    Here’s the two-week check-in. Two weeks we were talking about the “triple threat”, but as far as I am concerned, we missed the main issue which is some nasty virus running around that is neither Covid, the fly or RSV. I got it and really don’t like it. Talked to a doctor friend down on the Central coast and he and five other docs in their little private practice all got it. There are others, too. In the meantime, here’s the two-week metrics with the caveat that the Thanksgiving holiday may have delayed some reporting:
    Total Cases: 174,314 – Up only 871 in the County for two weeks, so slowing down among reported cases.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,855 up 36 for the two weeks also slower.

  36. Joe

    Because of the Thanksgiving holiday, I’m not confident last week’s numbers were as current as usual on Saturdays. Given that, here are this week’s figures showing the increases:
    Total Cases: 176,261 – Up 1.947 in the County for one week so we may be seeing the seasonal uptick that the newspapers are reporting
    Burlingame Cases: 5,909 up 54 for the week.

  37. Joe

    I’ve been wondering if the numbers would match the press coverage this week about cases spiking. Santa Clara County appears to have moved up a notch and may reinstate indoor masking. Wastewater analysis seems to be driving a lot of the press reports. Here are the numbers:
    Total Cases: 177,462 – Up 1,201 in the County for one week which is actually down quite a bit.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,954 up 45 for the week so also slower.
    I guess the main conclusion is the reported numbers are as foggy as ever…..

  38. Joe

    As has been the case for awhile, the numbers do not match the headlines. Looking at the headlines, you would think we are approaching the peak infection rate, but the numbers per the County are pretty stable. Check out the graph here: https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/county-data-dashboard
    Total Cases: 178,590 – Up 1,128 in the County for one week which is actually down again from the last two weeks.
    Burlingame Cases: 5,995 up 41 for the week so also slower.
    Hospitalized: 53 so up quite a bit since I stopped tracking it a few months ago when it was 10-20.

  39. Peter Garrison

    I’m finding a correlation between the percentage of people who say Merry Christmas this time of year with the percentage of people who wear masks. Less Merry Christmas equals more masks.
    Went to a Christmas concert in the Granada Theater in Santa Barbara with 1500 people. Two masks.
    It might also have something to do with the percentage of Christmas trees with a star on top vs. trees with nothing on top.

  40. Joe

    Another month/year and another subvariant. Here’s this week’s news:
    The COVID omicron XBB 1.5 subvariant, which is highly immune evasive and especially adept at binding to cells, has surged over the past week in the U.S. The number of XBB 1.5 cases has doubled over that period, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and accounted for 41% of all COVID cases in the United States. The XBB subvariant family is concerning to scientists and public health officials because its many mutations could lead to breakthrough infections, and the vaccines might be less effective against them.
    Here in SM County, the uptick for the last two weeks hasn’t shown up which is really a function of the data reporting getting blurrier:
    Total Cases: 180,331 – Up 1,741 in the County for two weeks.
    Burlingame Cases: 6035 up 40 for two weeks so also slower.
    Hospitalized: 40

  41. Joe

    While we work to stay dry as 9″ of rain have fallen in two weeks, here is the two-week update on Covid cases in the county:
    Total Cases: 181,580 – Up only 1,249 in the County for two weeks so either the reporting is becoming less accurate as time goes by or XBB1.5 isn’t kicking in like reported.
    Burlingame Cases: 6100 up 65 but apparently the city by city data is only for one week (as of 1/5 data).
    Hospitalized: 31 , down about 20%

  42. HMB

    This is just anecdotal: Have a friend whose wife is a dr at Kaiser. He was sick with what he figured was a bad flu, but given that he is immunocompromised (cancer) and some family members he had seen over the holidays came down with COVID, he took rapid tests and for several days his rapid tests came back negative. But his wife decided that he should take a PCR test, and that came back positive. So she got him on Paxlovid and he’s going much better except for lingering cough. So maybe some of those rapid tests aren’t so accurate with variants. (And some that have had their exp dates extended are now expiring.)

  43. Joe

    I’ve taken a month off from weekly reporting on the County numbers, but the news about viral loads in wastewater going up in February brought me back to the County site for the numbers. It’s a good thing too since they just posted this:
    On February 23, 2023, County Health will retire the following dashboards, as we look to state sources for data and trends.
    Case Data Dashboard (https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/county-data-dashboard)
    Lab Testing Data Dashboard (https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/lab-testing-data)
    Cases by City and Census Tract (https://www.smchealth.org/data-dashboard/cases-city)
    Those are the dashboards I have used from the beginning. So this will be the last numbers from the County itself:
    Total Cases: 184,001 – Up 2,421 in the County in a month
    Burlingame Cases: 6206 –up 106 in a month.
    We shall see if the state dashboard is a clear and consistent as the county’s has been.

  44. Gavinius Caesar

    I, Gavinius Caesar, have contracted the virus among us while on my secret vacation to the Mexican coast. I will be ruling from isolation for the next fortnight.

  45. hollyroller@ gmail.com

    All Hail Caesar!

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