Someday I will probably buy an electric vehicle (EV). Most of us probably will because we will be forced to via government policies–overt and covert. The overt policies are moves like mandating tight emissions standards, rebates and credits and the like. The covert policies slip in as dedicated parking spaces or stopping new gas stations from being built. But the switch over won't happen anytime soon as the AP reported awhile back with this article: America’s gas-fueled vehicles imperil Biden’s climate goals
In a rare display of data analysis the reporter gets to the bottom line conclusion that some of the big headline goals from politicians like Biden and Newsom are just not feasible.
For President Joe Biden to reach his ambitious goal of slashing America’s greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, huge reductions would have to come from somewhere other than one of the worst culprits: auto tailpipes.
That’s because there are just too many gas-powered passenger vehicles in the United States — roughly 279 million — to replace them in less than a decade, experts say. In a typical year, automakers sell about 17 million vehicles nationwide. Even if every one of the new ones were electric, it would take more than 16 years to replace the whole fleet. What’s more, vehicles now remain on America’s roads for an average of nearly 12 years before they’re scrapped, which means that gas-fueled vehicles will predominate for many years to come.
Last year, fewer than 2% of new vehicles sold in the United States were fully electric. To increase sales of electric vehicles, the administration plans to spend $15 billion to build a half-million charging stations by 2030, as well as offer unspecified tax credits and rebates to cut the cost. Swapping the entire fleet of gas burners for electric vehicles could take even longer than 20 years. Todd Campau, associate director of automotive for IHS Markit, estimates that the number of mostly gas-powered vehicles on U.S. roads, will keep growing — to 284 million by 2025. “If half of new cars sold around the world in 2035 are zero-emission vehicles, 70% of the vehicles on roads will still be burning gasoline or diesel,” the report said.
There are other fun factoids about the real, achievable pace of change to EVs, their batteries and other energy uses for those interested in clicking through to read them. The other half of the story, that is not part of this article is how gasoline is a by-product of refining petroleum for benzene and other chemicals which will still happen because they are still needed in millions of products, including aspirin and other drugs. Gas vehicles become a smaller portion of the fleet, but gas is still being produced and that equals a bargain at the pump and a tougher sell for EVs.
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