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Tracking the Curve in Context

I've been looking for ways to illustrate the infection case rate in the County since that is most pertinent to us here in B'game (verses the state, the country, New York City or whatever). Try this local comparison on for size.

The County has 766,573 residents.  PacBell-AT&T- now Oracle Park, home of the SF Giants, holds 40,800 people. So if the Giants sold-out 18 games and the 19th game sold three quarters of the seats that would be everyone in the County going to one game. According to Wikipedia, there are "1,500 club seats at the field level behind home plate". If we get around a dozen new cases per day over the next month that the Shelter-in-Place is in effect, the total cases would just fill the Field Club section at Oracle once. That's not once per game–just once. Just some perspective on today's total case count of 1,177.

It also reminds me how much I miss Major League baseball and the local BYBA and BHS games.  As the County relaxes some of the outdoor restrictions we need to keep up the SIP discipline, but it may not be obvious how to balance reopening with the impending economic hardships.

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46 responses to “Tracking the Curve in Context”

  1. Joe

    Since the beginning of all the SIP, seeing all of the kids riding their bikes and Razors and skateboards has had me thinking about reopening the schools this summer. You can think of this as summer vacation, reopen through the summer, give them a week off at Labor Day and then get back to it. I thought that was sort of an obvious solution. Not sure if that is what they have in mind when they announce this:
    A plan for reopening local schools should be released in early May, said San Mateo County Superintendent Nancy Magee, who is collaborating with county and health officials to determine a strategy for the next school year.
    In the immediate term, she said it is yet to be determined how each district will approach the summer months. The comments come in the aftermath of Gov. Gavin Newsom suggesting schools could reopen as soon as July to recover learning lost since campuses were shuttered.
    Tuesday’s announcement appeared to catch California’s top schools official by surprise, who said in a statement that “we all heard for the first time today the idea of schools reopening as early as July or August.”
    https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/plan-forming-to-reopen-local-schools/article_ce2ad4e0-8a94-11ea-9c24-c372ebd1156f#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1588255204&utm_medium=email&utm_content=read%20more

  2. Joe

    Oddly enough the County health site is reporting 26 new cases yesterday, but the total only went up by 20 to 1197. I guess 6 prior cases might have been miscategorized as Covid-19?

  3. Joe

    29 new cases on Friday taking the total to 1233, up 36, so some of the absent cases from yesterday have reappeared.

  4. Joe

    The total is up 48 cases over the last two days to 1,281. +20 on Saturday, +13 on Sunday and the other 15 must be from prior days.
    It was reported that the Gavinor is “teasing” us with the possibility of loosening restrictions–that was the verb the Chronicle and the DJ used. We should hear by mid-week.

  5. Joe

    25 new cases yesterday with an increase in the total of 34 to 1,315.
    Today marks the return of gardeners in my section of town–Tuesdays are gardener day.
    The Gavinor has relaxed a few other rules most notably that regular retail can open with “curbside service”.
    And in financial impact news, California has had to borrow $348 million to continue paying out unemployment benefits. There will be more borrowing to come–bye bye rainy day funds.

  6. Joe

    19 new cases yesterday and 7 from prior days makes the total 1,341.
    In a bit of sanity that fits in the “just because we can do something doesn’t mean we should” file, the City Council passed on the misnamed “safe streets” idea for B’game:
    Brownrigg said he felt the initiative makes sense in densely populated communities. But in Burlingame, he questioned whether residents are facing challenges to find open space.
    Alternatively, he feared banning cars could pose challenges to senior residents living on identified streets who need to get out of their car and move a barrier or cones each time they go to the grocery store or on another essential errand.
    https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/burlingame-shoots-down-safe-streets/article_7951a484-8f45-11ea-bd0a-9ba14f540fc8#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1588773610&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

  7. Joe

    28 new cases yesterday and 8 more from prior days so the total went up 36 to 1,377.
    In the “What Could Go Wrong?” file we place this headline: California faces $53.4 billion deficit, 18 percent unemployment, Newsom’s office projects.

  8. Cassandra

    Saw today that one criterium for opening to phase two in our county is that there is no Civid death for 14 days.
    Imagine being a business owner ready to go on day, say, 12:
    You’ve ordered your supplies, re-hired your help, have safety measures in place and then- one death- and back you go to suspended animation for two weeks.
    Time to open up and let people take care of themselves and their business. I’m old and will stay home and order pizza. The rest of you folks, get going.

  9. Joe

    Yesterday we had 18 new cases, but as has been the issue for most days the total went up by a different number: +20 to 1,397.
    I have added the criteria for reopening the County’s businesses to the post (see above). To Cassandra point, if we are going to count “new cases per day” such that there are less than 1 per 100K, which new case count is it? It probably doesn’t matter since that criteria means we need to be below 76 new cases per day. There was only one total outlier day (April 3rd) when we had 78. Every other day since this started has been below 50.
    Testing must be available for 1.5 tests per 1000 residents so we will need to be able to test 1,140 people per day. Why? Not sure.
    And the kicker is we need to hire 15 contact tracers per 100k residents, so that is another 114 County employees. Nevermind that some epidemiologist assert that contact tracing this far into the game is pointless. I’ll bet there will be a new Contact Tracers Union in the County before you know it.
    In other local news, buried in the Comicle article about UCSF not getting any of Gilead’s remdesivir was the little factoid that:
    “The U.S. government has not released a list of which hospitals will be getting supplies, but Conan MacDougall, a clinical pharmacy professor at UCSF, compiled a list after making inquiries at other hospitals and created a map of centers approved and denied.
    Most of the available supply of remdesivir appears to be going to COVID-19 hot spots on the East Coast, with one large hospital in Nashville receiving a supply.
    The map shows two approvals at medical centers in California, one in the city of San Mateo and one in Los Angeles, but it does not specify which hospitals.”
    https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/UCSF-medical-workers-question-federal-15255699.php

  10. Joe

    +21 cases yesterday with another 7 from prior days for a total of 1,425. There are only 51 people hospitalized with Covid-19 in the County right now…….

  11. Peter Garrison

    In today’s SF Chronicle, former SF Mayor and Speaker of the House, Willie Brown said June 1 may be the breaking point for people who are being financially (and psychologically) ruined by the shelter-in-place. In an earlier article Mayor Brown notes that Governor Newsom will never declare the state open, but let it slide on it’s own towards a clumsy opening.
    I can tell you from just walking around and looking at the roads and freeways that people are starting to bust out.
    We can trust our fellow citizens to make good choices based on the time-tested capitalist balance between fear and greed: People will be careful, successful businesses will be clean and safe, and if we need to take a careful step back, most will.
    My only mean-spirited idea is to stop paying government and department heads until the state is at Phase Three. This will bring any theorizing in which they engage down to an earthly reality through which most citizens are suffering.

  12. Joe

    We get a two-day update on Mondays since there is no Sunday update. The County saw 15 new cases on Saturday and 4 yesterday. The new total is 1,464 — up 39 from Saturday so 20 new cases must be attributed to earlier days.

  13. Barking Dog

    I think this parody is spot on…and pretty funny.
    https://youtu.be/wfGAktuU93s

  14. Joe

    Yesterday’s new case count was 17 and the total increased by 33 to 1,497. Thus 16 new cases were added to prior days, mostly on Sunday’s count. 52 people are hospitalized and the age distribution is pretty even. The 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s all have 200-273 cases.
    Thanks for the laugh Barking Dog. Keep ’em coming.

  15. Barking Dog

    LA is extending SIP in place THOUGH July. Guess LA is hoping Ms Pelosi’s non paritician stimulus package goes through to support all their residents and businesses.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavirus-beaches-reopen-los-angeles-county-move-toward-new-normal%3f_amp=true

  16. hollyroller@gmail.com

    I did not read all the comments due to the topic of re-opening Schools.
    Children all in close proximity to each other, NO ability for Social Distancing, Forget About It.
    My Sister was a BHS teacher-26 years.
    She had a “Cold” more or less, 7 months of the year.
    Lets all agree to attempt to see a New Way of education.
    There will be a lack of Social Skills, that is a very important component of High School Education.
    Nevertheless, we need to consider that this Pandemic may be the first of many to come.
    AS

  17. Joe

    7 new cases yesterday and the total went up by 18 to 1,515. If you recall the point I made in the original post about almost 19 sold-out Giants games, we have just filled Field Club for the first time.

  18. Joe

    14 new cases yesterday and uptick of 21 in total (so 7 new cases from prior days). The new total is 1,536.
    There are news articles about more allowed retail openings with curbside pick-up. At the rate we are going it would be hard to argue with that relaxation of the rules.
    If you look at the graph at the County site:
    https://www.smchealth.org/post/san-mateo-county-covid-19-data-1
    You’ll see there is no “curve”–it’s a straight line.
    Per the DJ today:
    The entirety of (County health officer Scott) Morrow’s order is slated to be released later this week. It will arrive only days after county supervisors asked whether Morrow would break from the pact of Bay Area health officials, who have collectively set the region’s pandemic response direction.
    ——————–
    The article also notes “There have been 280 cases identified in long-term care facilities, as of last week.” That is a data point that has been missing– 18.5% are in assisted living, so about 1 in 5.
    https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/san-mateo-county-entering-phase-2/article_592fc8a8-9593-11ea-aadc-932a6bc5ff92

  19. Peter Garrison

    Thanks Joe

  20. Cassandra

    Hey- It’d be a great time for Burlingame to have a drive-in movie lot someplace nice, like by the Bay!?
    Oh yeah, Facebook is there now, empty- while people learn they can work from home from now on.
    Like HSR- which no one will use because they can work from home.

  21. Bruce Dickinson

    Cassandra, great points and succinctly put! Bruce Dickinson just posted something similar in Joe’s most recent thread but with a few more words! *wink*.

  22. JP

    Let’s make Facebook to put a big screen on the side of the building and spread out seats 10 feet apart in the courtyard to show movies. Wear your parka.

  23. Joe

    27 new cases yesterday. The total went to 1,575 so there were 12 more added from prior days.
    @Cassandra, can you imagine how crowed the Burlingame Drive-in would be if it were allowed to be open while all the movie theaters are closed? With a modern projector and low-power FM radio sound for those who don’t want to touch the cool old window speakers, it would be packed!!

  24. Governor Gruesome

    Where’s this guy getting his hair cut?

  25. Joe

    23 new cases on Friday (yesterday) for a new total of 1,602. That means only 4 new cases from prior days. Hospitalizations are down to 44 County-wide so a whole bunch of people are recovering at home since there have been 146 new cases in the last week.
    The SF Comicle is highlighting the closures and entry limits of various Farmer’s Markets around the Bay Area. Apparently there are more than 50 in total. B’game’s continue on Thursdays and Sundays with the notation that “the Fresh Market is considered an Essential Business and customers visiting the Fresh Market must wear face coverings. Vendors will not be selling to anyone without a mask, and you will be asked to leave the market if you are not wearing one.” from the city.

  26. Joe

    It looks like we had a bit of a bump over the weekend with 47 new cases on Saturday and 9 on Sunday. The new total of 1,671 is +69, so an additional 13 cases arose from last week sometime. Hospitalizations rose by 10.

  27. Joe

    18 new cases yesterday and the Sunday count went up 1 to 10. But the total is 1,687 so two cases from prior days somehow went missing.
    The big news from yesterday was Newsom saying that hair cuts may resume in the next couple of weeks.

  28. Joe

    Another light day yesterday with 9 new cases and one from a previous day taking the County to 1,697 total cases. 60 are currently hospitalized.
    Napa County will lead the way in reopening as dine-in restaurants are now cleared to open and schools are expected to reopen on June 1.

  29. Joe

    I’m switching to an update every 2nd or 3rd day. Wednesday added 49 and yesterday added 45 cases for a new total of 1,783.
    The pace of re-openings is picking up with a variety of new protocols to limit numbers of patrons. The weather forecast for Memorial Day weekend is warm then hot which should put to the test some of the protocols. Be safe out there.

  30. Joe

    Here are the updates after the Memorial Day weekend hiatus in reporting. In the four days since last Thursday we saw 47, 36, 28 and 6 new cases for a total of 117. The total went up by 121 to 1,904 so they found 4 cases from last week that had not been counted.
    The Chronicle is supposedly providing city-by-city counts at https://projects.sfchronicle.com/ under the Corona Tracker tile. Scroll down and select San Mateo County and it reports 57 cases in B’game. The count hasn’t changed in days so I’m not sure how current it is.
    Current hospitalizations in the County are 52 which has been very stable for weeks.

  31. Bruce Dickinson

    Joe, you’re doing a lot of work re-regurgitating information that is publicly available. Don’t rely on the Chronicle, just go right to the horse’s mouth and this will save everyone time:
    https://www.smchealth.org/post/san-mateo-county-covid-19-data-1
    It’s really sad as almost all the deaths are elderly, the vast majority of them in nursing homes.
    Don’t let my skill with technology and information sources fool you, Bruce Dickinson is of advanced age, and despite being fit-as-a-fiddle, I’m taking no chances and I’m still sheltering in place in my Burlingame residence and have not traveled to my other homes.
    Recommend all senior citizens continue to do the same, given the sobering data above.

  32. Joe

    BD, It’s not that much work and long after the SM County page is gone, the Voice will still be here with a record of the “curve” that didn’t really bend upward; at least through Memorial Day. Regardless of whether you use the Chron site or the city-by-city part of the SMC site, the number of 57 in B’game hasn’t changed, but if you are curious about your other homes in the Bay Area you can use the Chron site to check far-flung counties and towns 🙂

  33. Joe

    BD, one other observation about County technology between us with some tech skills–go back to the County site and notice that the total cases at the top of the page have been updated today as I noted, but the city-by-city section still has the totals from last Friday. It’s all a work in progress down in RWC. Learning how Microsoft BI feeds to the whole page is an example.

  34. Joe

    Checking back with the County after three days yields an increase of 157 cases for a total of 2061. Quite a few of the 157 came from last week per the daily count, but hospitalizations also declined to 41. The count in Burlingame was finally updated–it’s now 64 (up 7 from last week) and a lower number per 100,000 residents than Millbrae and San Mateo.
    The Chronicle is reporting on a tightening of the mask requirements:
    People in San Francisco must wear a face covering outside in most circumstances under a major new health order announced Thursday, as the city paves a path toward reopening.
    Under the new mandate, which is scheduled to take effect at 11:59 p.m. Friday, face coverings are now generally required — with a few exceptions — when someone is exercising within 30 feet of another person, walking past someone else on a sidewalk or preparing food or other items for people who are not part of their household.
    —————-
    We shall see if this arrives for San Mateo County as well. The rate of mask-wearing on the Avenue yesterday was about 50-60% even as the Farmer’s Market started to open up and the pedestrian density went up.

  35. Joe

    In the last four days since I checked the number of cases, the COVID virus has been pushed off the front page. Yet we have to be sure not to take our eyes off the ball. Total cases in San Mateo County are 2188 as of yesterday; an increase of 127 in four days.
    56 people are in the hospital due to COVID. Almost 36,000 people have been tested and the positivity rate is 6.1%

  36. Joe

    142 new cases in the last four days for a new total of 2,330. 53 people currently hospitalized and the positivity rate dropped slightly to 5.9%. Next week will be an important indicator since we had two big demonstrations with little social distancing and outdoor dining.
    According to the DJ piece today, officials are worried about the same things. They also note “A county health and safety protest guideline recommends protesters monitor their symptoms at least 14 days after the public gathering”. I doubt that will happen for more than a very few people.
    https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/san-mateo-county-preps-for-possible-spike-in-covid-19-cases/article_9872da9a-a7a5-11ea-afcc-57b9e7800880

  37. hollyroller@gmail.com

    Who is going to be the “First Parent” to take their Child/Children to Any City of Burlingame Public School?

  38. J. Mir

    holy I can tell you this: 80% of students AND parents are ready to return to some form of in-person learning at SMUHSD this fall. That was confirmed in a survey and tonight’s school board meeting presented plenty of parents that are ready to send their kids back to school IMMEDIATELY (including a number of health workers). Want to know why? I’ll tell you why. DISTANCE LEARNING STINKS. It’s horrible. It is not learning for high-schoolers at any level. Tonight’s shameful action by the school board featured them completely caving to the teacher’s union, who does not want to return to campus, like, ever. Like never. They really feel they are solid in their position too, and its easy to understand why as the CTA is the most powerful union in the state and gets their way pretty much all the time, to the chagrin of teachers and the suffering of students and their parents who have to put up with their continual BS. So, holy, to answer your question, if you’re looking for volunteers, there’s a line already queueing at the door. To all the teachers: put your dang masks on and get back into the classroom, like NOW.

  39. Mom

    Thank you, J. Mir. I felt like this might be the case but appreciate hearing it is.

  40. hollyroller@gmail.com

    That is Crazy. Especially since CV 19 cases are rising by the hour.
    Without a Doubt, parents are putting their children’s long term health at risk.
    For the Parents own ego.
    Get a Clue all. CV 19 is going to be around for years.

  41. Majorie

    CDC Estimates
    There is accurate data about flu deaths in children because states are required to report this information to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). For adult flu-related deaths, there is a yearly estimate based on validated methods of population health.2
    However, some public health organizations use estimates that include pneumonia or flu-related complications, while some do not include these in the numbers of flu deaths.
    According to the CDC, flu-related deaths between the years of 1986 and 2007 ranged from 3,000 to 49,000.3 Since 2010, the flu-related death rate has been between 12,000 and 61,000 annually, with the highest season being 2017–2018 and the lowest being 2011–2012.
    Most deaths are caused by complications of the flu, including pneumonia or a secondary bacterial infection of the heart or brain. Younger children, pregnant women, the elderly, and people with compromised immune systems are at greatest risk
    (Edited) I dislike Liberals who use Corona as political weapon.

  42. Barking Dog

    Holy gets his Covid data from his sisters CTA rep.

  43. Editor

    I had to edit the last two comments. Hollyroller, if you don’t stop with you sign-off slogan your comments will be entirely deleted.

  44. hollyroller@gmail.com

    Sorry Joe

  45. HMB

    So much for the virus “taking a break” for the summer. It will be interesting once schools are in session what will happen when kids show up at school sick. Trusting that parents will check their kids for fever every morning before sending them off to school — yeah, right, that is going to work. Some will probably give their kids a dose of Tylenol first thing every morning just to make sure they will have no fever at the morning temperature check.

  46. HMB

    So today we’ve got news reports of some 45 administrators in the Santa Clara Unified School District having to quarantine because one of their pre-symptomatic fellows decided to get tested a couple of days after a meeting for fall planning because they were feeling under the weather. I guess if they all end up sick, they’ll be immune for the fall? Sounds like the college students in Alabama having COVID parties.BTW, the superintendent of Santa Clara Unified was superintendent of the San Bruno district 2017-19.

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