The SF Chronicle broke up the pandemic news with a front page piece about the local effects of sea level rise.
The study was led by the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, which released its first detailed look at sea level rise in 2007. But the autonomous state agency was joined in this effort by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Bay Area Regional Collaborative. Caltrans funded most of the $1.2 million study, which bears the unwieldy title, “Adapting to Rising Tides Bay Area: Regional Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Study.”
The full report analyzes scenarios for 10 different extremes of “total water levels,” a term that would apply to straightforward higher tides — day in and day out — as well as storm surges layered on top of higher tides. They range from 12 to 108 inches. But much of the emphasis is on a raised water level of 48 inches, a number that corresponds to the “likely” amount of sea level rise forecast in the Bay Area for 2120 by the California Ocean Protection Council.
This part caught my eye as we are enjoying a slightly quieter SFO although two nights ago was still quite bad
The findings go beyond large-scale numbers to highlight specific aspects of the approaching threat to how the region functions.
• Runways at San Francisco and Oakland airports would be largely under water.
It's fun to wander around the internet looking at various studies. This one is pretty short and leads to the factoid that
The current sea level rise is 3 mm/year. The data from the past can also be used for future projections, using a so-called semi-empirical model calibrated with the historically observed relationship between temperature and sea level. With the new data, this results in a projected increase in the 21st century of 24-131 cm, depending on our emissions and thus on the extent of global warming.
Keep in mind, the highest-water mark of 131cm is 51 inches or close to the "most likely" 48 inch rise in the Bay Area study. You will have to decide if using the highest prediction is an April Fool's joke or not.
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