Category: State Ievel issues

  • Putting Two and Two Together on our “Crisis”

    It is one thing to believe someone cannot put two and two together and get four.  It's another to see them demonstrate it in front of 300 people in a hotel ballroom.  Last week the Burlingame/SFO Chamber of Commerce held its annual meeting at the Hyatt and added something new–a panel discussion with three local politicians.  The panel, moderated by City Manager Lisa Goldman, included B'game mayor Peter Stevenson, Diane Papan's District director David Burruto and San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa.  Each had an opportunity for an opening remark.

    Canepa started enthusiastically by highlighting how he travels all over the country and the world and people constantly tell him how much they love San Mateo County.  How lucky we are to live here and how many of them would like to do the same.  And it's more than just our fabulous weather.  It was a glowing opener and something many of us also experience, especially if we get more specific and mention B'game.  Canepa then proceeded to talk about our "housing crisis" and how we need to build a lot more affordable housing, so people and businesses stop leaving the county.  The notion that we cannot outbuild the global demand to live here that he just described never actually occurred to him.  It was remarkable.  It would have been great to ask, "exactly how much new, affordable housing we should build?"  5,000 units?  Should we accommodate a doubling of the county population (about another 750,000 people?) Should we triple it?  Should we perhaps address some of the other areas that go into the total cost of home ownership–some of which he might actually be able to do something about?  Should it all be "stack and pack" cellblock designs so it will be "affordable"?  That would have been fun.

    Given it was only a 20-minute talk, Lisa Goldman only got to ask one additional question out of a big pile submitted by the audience.  She did a quick tally and determined that about half were asking about the Broadway grade separation.  All three panelists responded.  I listened closely.  There was mention of "close coordination", "better communication" between agencies, "making it a priority" and the challenge of working around "electrified Caltrain".  In other words, five minutes of bobbing and weaving because there is no viable plan to deal with the new, bigger cost estimate.

    Here's the panel at work.  Lunch was good.

    Chamber panel_012325

  • Moss Landing battery fire: don’t waste a good crisis?

    With all of the focus on CO2 it's easy to forget there are a lot of other, way more dangerous pollutants being released during emergencies.  The Moss Landing lithium-ion fire adds hydrogen fluoride to the list.  Where's my college chemistry book when I need it?  The various wildfires over the last four years have spewed mega tons of particulate matter ("smoke") and who knows what else from burning cars, houses and businesses.  But all the Sacramento and local government focus has been on our cars, stove tops, BBQs and water heaters.

    Only now is our camera hound governor is calling for an investigation into the massive Moss Landing battery plant fire even though it is either the fourth or fifth fire there in the last four years.

    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A fire at the world’s largest battery storage plant in Northern California smoldered Friday after sending plumes of toxic smoke into the atmosphere, leading to the evacuation of up to 1,500 people. The blaze also shook up the young battery storage industry.

    The fire at the Vistra Energy lithium battery plant in Moss Landing generated huge flames and significant amounts of smoke Thursday but had diminished significantly by Friday, Fire Chief Joel Mendoza of the North County Fire Protection District of Monterey County said.

    Brad Watson, Vistra’s senior director of community affairs, said two “overheating events” happened at the battery plant in 2021 and 2022 because the batteries got wet. A third incident happened in 2022 in the neighboring Elkhorn battery plant that is owned by PG&E, he said.

    I'm all for huge, grid-based battery storage.  We need it if we have any hope for stability

    California was an early adopter of battery storage and leads the nation with more than 11 gigawatts of utility-scale storage online, which can meet nearly half of the demand on the state’s main grid for four hours per day.

    But like first-generation EV chargers that fail regularly, the devil is in the details.  As Rahm Emanuel said "you never want a good crisis go to waste".  That's the order of the day.

     

    Battery investigation
      

  • Friends with 3 million e-Benefits

    Back in May, just before the new fiscal year started, the AP reported that

    Newsom announced on Friday a $26.7 billion deficit, but it’s really closer to $45 billion. That’s because Newsom didn’t include roughly $17.3 billion worth of actions he and lawmakers already agreed on. Those included a cut of $3.6 billion in primarily one-time funding to some school, welfare and climate programs. The plan also delays and defers about $5.2 billion in spending for various programs, including $1 billion to fund rail and public transit systems.

    So how do you manage a massive deficit?  The same way you eat an elephant.  One bite at a time.  Here's an easy morsel from the city e-newsletter this week.

    The California E-Bike Incentive Project application window is officially open.

    During this application period, the program will award up to 1500 vouchers to income-qualified residents for incentives up to $2000 that can be redeemed at numerous participating E-Bike retailers. Additional application windows with more incentives will become available later in 2025.

    1500 x $2000 = $3 million.  It's a good thing more "incentive$" are coming.  Perhaps the only way to get quickly through the Broadway interchange in 2026 will be on an e-bike.  In the meantime, what is Spin's incentive to haul away deserted e-bikes? (hat tip:  regular reader)

    Litter bikes_2

  • Gasoline prices: Get ready for more pain

    After reading about our Air Resources Board move this month to tighten gasoline "standards" even more I was reminded of this post from 2015.  The California average was $3.22 back then and in February 2017, I noted the price of regular at the Peninsula Ave. Shell was $3.05.  With apologies to composer Mary Hopkin

    Those were the days my friend
    We thought they'd never end
    We'd sing and drive forever and a day
    We'd buy the fuel we choose
    We'd fight and always cruise
    For we were young and sure to have our way

    Today regular at that Shell station is $4.99, 64% higher than 2017.  And we need to get ready for more pain at the pump as Calmatters writes about the November 8th CARB vote

    The new rule’s potential effects on California fuel prices are largely unknown. The air board said today that oil companies typically already pass 8 to 10 cents per gallon of costs on to consumers because of the state’s fuel standard.  Environmentalists and consumer advocates opposed the new rules, warning the changes will boost alternative fuels — such as biofuels made from cow manure or soy beans — that may have limited environmental upsides, and will allow oil companies to stay in business because they can buy credits or switch to producing those fuels.

    In an initial assessment released last year, the air board projected that the proposed new standard could potentially raise the per-gallon price of diesel by 59 cents and for gasoline, 47 cents, in 2025. Air board officials have since disavowed that estimate, writing last month that the analysis “should not be misconstrued as a prediction of the future credit price nor as a direct impact on prices at the pump.”

    Oh, let's not "misconstrue" anything.  We just won't make any forecast.  Other estimates put the gas increase at 65 cents per gallon or higher.  Meanwhile over in EV world, where CARB would like to push all of us, the WSJ has a piece titled "The Withering Dream of a Cheap American Electric Car".  Tesla has backed-off building a $25,000 car and all the other, non-profitable car companies see no way to succeed making a cost-competitive version either.  The Lucid CEO notes

    “That market is notorious because you get into mass manufacture—terrible, low margins,” he said of the low-price EVs. “To install the manufacturing base for millions of these units makes little sense to me.”

    Abandoning the idea of a $25,000 car comes as a blow to those who were betting that the electrification of the automobile was on track to happen seemingly overnight—with EVs for every pocketbook replacing the tens of millions of vehicles on the roadways.

    Get ready to pay more–probably a lot more–because 12 unelected, activist bureaucrats say so.  By the way, it pays well too for a part-time gig.  CARB Chair Liane Randolph is pulling down $278,876 in pay and benefits.  She's probably buying premium.

  • Poll: 70% say Bay Area quality of life has declined

    When I read headlines like 7 in 10 residents say the region’s quality of life is getting worse, I think about how bad the roads have become (looking at you, El Camino), how poorly many government agencies are being run, how much traffic there is, how we are losing control of our local voting and zoning, and public safety.  School quality, water security, utility costs—the list is long.  Having spent years in market research, I know a poll can be tweaked in any number of ways from who gets polled to how the questions and multiple-choice answers are phrased to who does the analysis of the results.  The Merc reported on the latest public sentiment here.  It notes

    According to the poll, 70% of registered voters said the Bay Area’s quality of life has worsened over the past five years, while just 13% said it has improved. Seventeen percent said it’s stayed the same.

    A whopping 46% of respondents said they were likely to leave the Bay Area in the next few years, with two-thirds of those citing high housing costs as the main reason to consider a move. During the pandemic, people fleeing the region contributed to a 3% population drop, though that exodus has since slowed.  When asked to select ways the region might best be improved, respondents’ top choice at 39% was building more affordable housing.

    Of course, that means 61% chose something other than to jam more people into the Bay Area.  See how the reporting can spin the story?  If the other choices had overlap to split the responses, 39% starts to look big.

    Homeowners in the poll (note, that percentage is not revealed) also said the state’s home insurance meltdown is hitting their finances. Fifty-two percent said their home insurance premiums have increased significantly, 22% said they have avoided using their home insurance policy out of fear of cancellation or rising rates, 12% said they’ve had a difficult time finding an insurer to write them a policy and 8% said an insurer had canceled a policy.

    Insurance has been slipping down a slippery slope for years with no real solution from the state. And many renters don't realize their rent is tied to the insurance on their apartment.  Then there is this bit of Sacramental hand-waving following on the heels of even more restrictions on drilling.  When you leave the state the gas prices are almost unreal—unreal low.

    To prevent spikes in gas prices, state lawmakers are now considering a plan from Gov. Gavin Newsom to force oil refiners to keep minimum fuel reserves, though doing so likely wouldn’t lower overall prices at the pump.

    The piece finishes off by describing some people who think Silicon Valley giants are "villains" who have "lost their moral compass".  I can't understand where that is coming from or what it has to do with the quality of life in the Bay Area.  At least the piece noted huge support for Prop. 36 to get the organized theft back under control and remove the locked plastic doors protecting shampoo and deodorant.  The big question remains how many people we should jam into the Peninsula?  The RHNA requirements are nonsense, but they are driving down the quality of life for long-time residents who look at things like this on the north end and wonder "why"?  That's the B'game police building in the front.

    Monster building over PD

  • Bonta: Recycling misdirection

    Our Attorney General is really a piece of work.  His latest gambit to attack oil and gas companies is to sue ExxonMobil for deceptive recycling practices.  You heard right.  Apparently, we are all being deceived about recycling by ExxonMobil.  Oddly enough, I have never heard one thing from ExxonMobil about plastics or recycling, but per the Merc piece today:

    California Attorney General Rob Bonta and a coalition of environmental nonprofits sued Exxon Mobil on Monday morning alleging the gas giant enacted a “decades-long campaign of deception” that fueled a global plastic pollution crisis.  The lawsuits will seek civil damages from ExxonMobil for environmental destruction, public health harms, and an end to its “deceptive practices” that they argue have led to plastic being found from the depths of the ocean to the peak of Mt. Everest.

    The converging lawsuits against ExxonMobil will attempt to prove the corporation systematically led the public to believe that plastic waste is safely disposable through recycling and failed to share information about toxic “forever” chemicals and plastics’ lasting environmental harms. If successful, the lawsuits would compel ExxonMobil to end its “deceptive” practices and could secure hundreds of millions to support climate change solutions.

    There is definitely some misinformation or deception going on in the recycling world.  We noted it in April 2021 here.  Recall from that post that "More than 90% of plastics generated in the U.S. each year winds up in landfills or incinerators, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.  Only about 9% is recycled."

    We are paying a nickel or a dime extra for every container in CRV, but 9 out of 10 just go to the landfill.  If any organization is fooling people about recyling it's the state via the CRV mandate.  Maybe Bonta should be suing the State of California for deceptive practices and public theft?  Don't hold your breath.

  • “Newsom 2028” in progress

    One has to wonder if our governor is all there all the time.  The weathervane swinging from hard left to sort of maybe right is a wonder to behold.  One can only think that his presidential campaign is underway for 2028.  The Comicle reports that 808,000 acres have burned this far this fire year–more than twice the area damaged in all of 2023.  Completely predictable…because it happens every year.

    Dan Walters at Calmatters.org keep banging the budget gong

    Initially Newsom proposed a $13.1 billion draw from reserves, but the final 2024-25 budget approved in June took just $5.1 billion from the rainy fund and envisions another $7.1 drawdown in 2025-26. It also largely drains two other reserves, including one for schools.  This year’s deficit resulted from a massive overestimate of revenues by Newsom’s administration in 2022, rather than an economic turndown, and some critics have complained that misusing reserves this year could leave them unable to cope with a recession.

    Newsom, whose 2022 projection of a huge budget surplus from explosive revenue gains proved to be incredibly wrong, now wants the state to avoid spending estimates of windfall revenues until they are actually in the bank — a prudence that should have been adopted many years ago.

    While Newsom flies around the country to swing states and any other state that would have him, his team finds time to issue this warning.  As if any sensible city with even modest resources wouldn't already be doing it.  He's gotta get this problem that he has ignored for decades under control before 2028.  B'game better go check the Eucs along the Caltrain tracks and some of the little nooks and crannies on the Bayfront.

    Newsom threat

     

  • Climate Observations: Google, CalFire and You

    This is a placeholder post for when we get to the point where we cannot replace our gas stoves or gas water heaters or gas furnaces or gas barbeques.  Hopefully that day is still a few years away, but the smart bet is the climate fanatics will eventually get us.  When we complain about the costs (many hidden including the soft costs of your time), we will be told to suck it up.

    In the meantime, two types of events are taking place.  There are 3,543 wildfires of more than 10 acres burning right now in California per the CalFire incident page.  Your barbeque is a problem, but Sacramento (looking at you, Newsom, even though I know you are busy thinking about a promotion) still hasn't addressed the real need for more manpower, equipment, forest surveillance, etc.  Year after year, same old story and the news media always acts surprised.  Massive amounts of smoke, emissions, and cancelled insurance policies that end up as a State (read us) liability via the FAIR program.

    And then there are these two tidbits buried in the business news this week:

    Google and Microsoft have vowed to slash emissions by the end of the decade, but new disclosures show their numbers are moving in the wrong direction.   Google’s overall emissions increased by 13.5% from 2022 to 2023, according to its annual sustainability report released Tuesday. They are up by nearly half since 2019. A recent disclosure from Microsoft told a similar story. Its total emissions were up by 29% between 2020 and 2023.

    Big Tech's servers are using so much electricity that they are doing direct connections to power plants with "behind-the-meter" access.  Some observers are worried this will destabilize the grid and it certainly won't make it any cheaper.  Stay tuned so we can alert you when to start hoarding gas appliances. 

  • Graduation Requirement: Let’s have the Legislature go first

    Sometimes you have to laugh at the Sacramento hubris otherwise you will just cry.  Such was the state of affairs last week when the wise folks in Sac added "personal finance" to the required high school curriculum.  From the Merc:

    Last week, California became the 26th state to require high school students to take a stand-alone, one-semester financial literacy course when Gov. Gavin Newsom approved Democratic Assemblymember Kevin McCarty’s bill, AB 2927.  The personal finance course will teach students a range of topics, including banking, budgeting, loans, insurance, investing and credit.

    Schools will be required to offer the course by the 2027-28 school year, and the course will be a graduation requirement for the class of 2030-31.

    “We need to help Californians prepare for their financial futures as early as possible,” Newsom said in a recent statement. “Saving for the future, making investments and spending wisely are lifelong skills that young adults need to learn before they start their careers, not after.”

    I will add they especially need these skills if they want to start a career in politics.  Let's go back to February when two people who understand finance reiterated concerns about the mess called the state budget.  Studying "budgeting" and "credit"?  Let's let the Legislature take the course before the high school kids, please.

  • Prop. 47 Shenanigans around the ballot

    You know things are getting bad in Sacramento when even the SF Comicle starts calling out the legislature as "shady".  An initiative to reverse Prop. 47, which was approved by our clueless electorate a decade ago to reduce the penalties on drug offenses and theft, is headed for the November ballot.  As we noted, the action on the ballot this Fall is in the initiatives.  The shady bits to stymie the initiative are slowing coming out as even Emily Hoeven at the Comicle has caught on:

    Earlier this year, lawmakers unveiled a bipartisan package of bills that would, among other things, create a new crime for serial retail thieves, allow prosecutors to combine certain low-level thefts when charging offenders, permit courts to issue retail theft restraining orders and institute sentencing enhancements for those who steal, resell and destroy especially large amounts of property.  Thus far, the package has been smoothly chugging through the Legislature. 

    But Democrats have now cooked up a scheme to kill most of their own bills if voters approve a ballot measure to reform Proposition 47 — the controversial 2014 initiative that reduced penalties for some drug and theft offenses — which formally qualified Tuesday for the November election.

    Last week, news leaked that Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire planned to amend the Democratic public safety package to make it effective immediately upon Gov. Gavin Newsom’s signature, rather than the customary first day of the new year, and then repeal it if voters approved the Prop 47 reform measure. 

    It was a crafty, if cynical, strategy that effectively left ballot measure supporters with a choice: Either they could support the package of bills, which were all but guaranteed to become law in a matter of weeks, or they could take their chances with the ballot measure, which voters might or might not approve and which would require millions of dollars in campaign funding.

    Click through to the Comicle piece for all the dirty little moves, the virtue signaling about "mass incarceration", demonizing district attorneys and whatever else our betters in Sac who have the super majority can throw against the wall.  It really is appalling.

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